Banking

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“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of percentage point).

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As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice.

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Corrections and Revisions The data and analysis appearing in the Global Financial Stability Report are compiled by IMF staff at the time of publication.

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Digital Multiple digital editions of the Global Financial Stability Report, including ePub, enhanced PDF, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at elibrary.IMF.org/Apr24GFSR.

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In normal times, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries.

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The report benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussions of the GFSR on April 3, 2024.

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Although banks appear well positioned to absorb CRE losses in aggregate, certain countries may experience more strains given that their banks hold large amounts of CRE loans (Figure ES.4), especially if these holdings are concentrated in CRE segments experiencing weak demand.

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Still, household debt sustainability ratios are at modest levels globally, and a surge in residential mortgage defaults remains a tail risk.

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Also, increasing evidence shows that cash liquidity buffers for firms in advanced economies and emerging markets eroded further over 2023, owing to still-high global interest rates.

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As of the third quarter of 2023, the share of small firms with a cash-to-interest-expense ratio below 1 was around one-third in advanced economies and more than half in emerging markets.

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Many emerging markets have shown resilience, and some frontier economies have taken advantage of buoyant risk appetite to issue international debt.

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The global economy appears increasingly likely to achieve a soft landing, and cracks in the financial system exposed by high interest rates have not ruptured further.

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Distributions in panels 3 and 4 are constructed from survey forecast responses, submitted by economists and market participants to Bloomberg.

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Short-term interest rate uncertainty is captured by 1y1y at-the-money swaption-implied volatility.

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1y1y = one-year, one-year forward; ECB = European Central Bank; EUR = euro; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; MOVE = Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate.

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Evolution of Long-Term Rates Long-term bond yields across major advanced and emerging market economies have declined, on net, since the October 2023 GFSR, in most cases, driven by a fall in expected path of short-term rates as well as term premiums.

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In panel 4, time periods for Federal Reserve tightening cycles are based on Blinder (2023).

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AE = advanced economies; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; EMs = emerging markets.

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Year-over-year growth in expected earnings have steadily increased since July 2023 for S&P 500 and Russell 2000.

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For details, see Online Annex 1.1 in the October 2018 Global Financial Stability Report.

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Changes in valuation of high-quality properties owned by institutional investors (right scale) are computed as of January 2024.

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In panel 2, the liquidity score uses a combination of absolute and relative measures to calculate market liquidity, including percentage of global cross-border investment, share of institutional investment, and volume and number of unique buyers.

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Data are as of the third quarter of 2023, except Italy and Korea (2023:Q2), Australia and Germany (2023:Q1), and South Africa (2022:Q3).

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Some banking systems would have substantially lower ratios if non-CRE loans collateralized by commercial properties are excluded.

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Mortgage interest rates data for Australia, Norway, and the United States include information until the fourth quarter of 2023.

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The panel shows changes of debt-service to income ratios in the third quarter of 2023 (latest available), year over year, under two alternative scenarios for the fourth quarter of 2023.

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Commodities include implied volatility of oil and gold as well as 180-day realized volatility of weekly returns for bitcoin.

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Panel 2 shows the difference between S&P option-implied volatility and a forward-model-based volatility estimated using the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model.

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This may potentially underestimate the overall share of passive investing as it does not include other vehicles such as index trackers that are also associated with passive investing.

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Panel 3 uses the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond and the iShares J.P.

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In panel 2, yield decomposition is calculated by IMF staff using ACM methodology.

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Average maturity of local currency government debt in panel 4 is a simple average of 14 major sovereigns with all data as of March 28, 2024.

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CDS = credit default swap; CEEMA = Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa; EM = emerging market; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; HC = hard currency; LatAm = Latin America.

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In panels 3 and 4, the ranking of public finance conditions is based on local governments’ general budget deficit and official debt.

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US corporate bond spreads are narrower than model values based on macro fundamentals.

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EPS = earnings per share; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report ; HY = high yield; IG = investment grade.

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In panel 2, US bankruptcies are counted as the sum of Chapters 7 and 11.

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The index is 12-month moving average of the spread and annualized.

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Projections of the real risk premium are obtained using parametric bootstrap techniques and considering a range of forecasts for Federal Reserve holdings by year-end 2025, as shown in the latest Primary Dealer Survey.

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The ellipses shown delineate the 68 and 95 percent CIs, within which the projected real risk premium is expected to fall.

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Values in panel 3 are standardized by z-scores based on aggregate consensus forecast data as of the fourth quarter of 2023; larger values along a given axis signify more risks along that characteristic.

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See Chapter 2 and Chapter 2 Online Annex 2.1 for definitions of KRIs in the October 2023 Global Financial Stability Report.

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The 12 major EMs are Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Poland, South Africa, and Türkiye.

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Panels 2 and 3 show the impulse response functions to a 10-basis point sovereign spread shock from a panel VAR (1), with sovereign CDS spreads ordered before average bank CDS spreads.

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All banks should be required to periodically test their access to central bank instruments.

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For the corporate sector, improvement in near-term risk is accompanied by more than proportionate deterioration in medium-term risk.

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The conditional forecast density model employed for the United States in panels 3 and 4 augments information on current-quarter credit growth and financial conditions (see the October 2023 Global Financial Stability Report) with quarterly credit growth rates for corporate and household sector provided by domestic banks and all other sectors of the economy.

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Panel 2, high CRE concentration measured by CRE exposure to Tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses above 300 percent, uninsured deposits based on call report data for banks with total assets of more than $1 billion, and red dots correspond to unrealized losses of 25 percent or more of Tier 1 capital as of fourth quarter 2023.

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Firms borrowing private credit tend to be smaller and riskier than their public market counterparts, and the sector has never experienced a severe economic downturn at its current size and scope.

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Assessing overall financial stability risks of this asset class is challenging because the data needed to fully analyze these risks are unavailable.

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In panel 2, the measure of assets under management includes those from private credit funds, business development companies, and middle-market collateralized debt obligations, with the last two being mostly US focused, from 2000 to June 2023.

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Average annual credit losses are computed for a 10-year window between 2013 and 2022.

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Public BDCs provide additional transparency, as they cater to a broad range of equity and bond investors.

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The impulse response function is based on an AR(1) model using quarterly data.

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Derivatives/total assets: 2016 Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; individual annual reports of selected pension funds; Preqin; and IMF staff calculations.

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Note that the calculation in panel 3 is based on 21 of the pension funds in the sample for which data on allocation to private credit funds was found in Preqin.

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The global insurers estimate in panel 2 is calculated from a sample of 50 selected large insurance groups from 19 jurisdictions across Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia.

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The US insurers’ risk-capital ratio is based on a sample of the largest 20 US insurers.

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Relevant regulators and supervisors should coor dinate to address data gaps and enhance their reporting requirements to monitor emerging risks.

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Most direct reported losses from cyberattacks are small, around $0.5 million, but the risk of extreme losses—at least as large as $2.5 billion—has increased.

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The financial sector is highly exposed to cyber risks, with nearly one-fifth of all incidents affecting financial firms.

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“Affected count” is the total accumulated number of parties with data breached or stolen, or devices compromised, depending on the type of event.

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Data for more recent periods may be underestimated because of delayed reporting of cyber events.

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In panel 2, data labels use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.

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Small firms are firms with total assets below the 25th percentile of the sample distribution.

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Malicious events include cyber extortion, malicious data breach, identity fraudulent use/account access, network and website disruption, phishing, spoofing, social engineering, skimming, and physical tampering (see Online Annex 3.1).

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Teleworkability groups (low, medium, high) are based on Dingel and Nieman (2020).

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In panel 2, the MSCI Privacy & Data Security Management Score measures how well a company manages the risk and opportunities, with higher scores indicating better management.

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Panels 3 to 5 are based on an IMF survey of 74 EMDEs comprising 43 questions on various aspects of cybersecurity.

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To achieve these objectives, the SWIFT Customer Security Controls Framework v2024 contains security controls, 25 of which are mandatory (SWIFT 2023).

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