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Since 1971, global demand for steel has increased by three times, cement by nearly seven times, primary aluminium by nearly six times and plastics by over ten times.

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Scenario is one of the most ambitious in the medium term and remains well within the range of these scenarios through to 2060.

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Aluminium use sees an increase (by 5% in 2060) due to vehicle lightweighting outweighing other strategies that put downward pressure on demand.

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Efficiency variant (by 9% in 2060), as the higher material demand requires greater uptake of emission abatement technologies to achieve the same overall emissions levels.

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Pursuing material efficiency strategies to their practical limit in the Material Efficiency variant reduces steel use by an additional 15% and cement use by another 17% in 2060.

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Vehicles value chain For passenger light-duty vehicles, in the Reference Technology Scenario a combination of increasing stocks and lightweighting leads to demand for steel in 2060 that is approximately 20% higher than that in 2017.

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Absolute savings in 2060 in the MEF are lower than in 2030, primarily due to increased vehicle electrification, which lowers use-phase emissions savings.

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Pushing lightweighting further to its realistic limits leads to additional use-phase emissions reduction in the Material Efficiency variant, equivalent to an additional 20% of Clean Technology Scenario passenger light-duty vehicle use-phase emissions in 2060.

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For commercial light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, net absolute emissions savings increase to 2060, as a large portion of these vehicles (particularly trucks) are still running on fossil fuels.

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So far, 185 parties have ratified the agreement to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C.

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Note that throughout this publication, 2017 values are estimates based on data from 2015 and 2016, unless stated otherwise.

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Rapid economic development in the People’s Republic of China (“China”) has resulted in most of the growth in material demand since 2000, particularly for cement, steel and aluminium.

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Notes: For cement, apparent consumption is assumed equal to production, given limited international trade; 2016 is an estimate and 2017 is an extrapolation of trends since 2000.

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For aluminium, apparent consumption is primary production reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), adjusted for exports and imports as reported by the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade); 2017 is an extrapolation of trends since 2000.

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Notes: For cement, apparent consumption is assumed equal to production, given limited international trade; 2016 is an estimate and 2017 is an extrapolation of trends since 2010.

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For aluminium, apparent consumption is primary production reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), adjusted for exports and imports as reported by the UN Comtrade; 2017 is an extrapolation of trends since 2010.

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The next largest key contributors are the Asia Pacific region excluding China and India (15% of energy consumption and 12% of emissions), Europe (12% of energy consumption and 9% of emissions), North America (11% of energy consumption and 8% of emissions), and India (7% of energy consumption and 9% of emissions).

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End uses include cars and trucks (22%), buildings and construction (27%), cans and other packaging (14%) and electrical cables and other electrical uses (13%).

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Other major producers include India (7%) and the United States, Viet Nam, Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia (each contributing approximately 2% of global production).

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Reducing the impact of materials is the foundation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 12: ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns (United Nations General Assembly, 2015).

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However, if cement demand continues at RTS levels, emissions intensity would instead need to be reduced by approximately 40% to achieve the same CTS emissions reduction.

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As an example, through additive manufacturing, GE Aviation was able to reduce the weight of its jet engines by approximately 25% and reduce the complexity of the engine from 18 parts to a single part (Geissbauer, Wunderlin and Lehr, 2017).

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Emerging technologies like additive manufacturing may also encourage repair over disposal and reduce obsolescence, in that spare parts could be produced and acquired more easily (Despeisse and Ford, 2015).

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A starting point may be easier to achieve opportunities for steel reuse, which include relocation of steel buildings components and re-forming of ship plates and line pipes (Cooper and Allwood, 2012).

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Estimates suggest that approximately 30-40% of cement in concrete may be unreacted, leaving potential for recovery of this unhydrated cement for reuse (Bakker et al., 2015).

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Bambach (2012), "Mapping the global flow of steel: From steelmaking to end use goods", Environmental Science and Technology, Vol.

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In the CTS, demand for materials is already reduced compared to in the RTS, by 24% for steel (equivalent to about six times the production in the United States in 2017), 15% for cement (two and a half times the production in India in 2017) and 17% for aluminium (1.2 times the primary production in the People’s Republic of China [“China”] in 2017) in 2060.

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This is particularly the case in the CTS, in which the power sector grows to 7% of total steel demand and 1% of total cement demand in 2060.

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Solar is the largest contributor to aluminium demand, accounting for nearly 75% of power sector demand in 2060 in the CTS.

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(2017), which was a comprehensive life-cycle assessment of a global low-carbon electricity scenario that included estimates of regionalised material demand per capacity addition of different supply technologies.

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Product manufacturing yields are variable depending on the end use or part, with yields for some end uses such as buildings already over 90% and for others such as vehicles currently in the 60-75% range.

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Manufacturing yields for aluminium are generally lower than those for steel, with semi-manufacturing yields in the range 50-75% for most semi-manufactured products and below 90% for most end uses (Annex III).

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This is a trend that becomes more visible when approaching 2060, when greater amounts of steel-based products introduced into stocks reach their end of life.

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Still, the additional steel demand reductions in the MEF relieve significant pressure on technological transformations even to 2060 in some regions such as China, where the MEF emissions intensity is over 60% higher than in the CTS.

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For example, the MEF requires less deployment of CCS in the cement sector, with cumulative emissions captured being 45% lower (2.3 Gt lower) in the MEF compared to in the CTS.

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While emissions in aluminium increase by 10% due to a combination of increased material demand and reduced scrap availability, this is far outweighed by the emissions reduction in steel, which decrease by 6%, and cement, which decline by 9%.

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The increase is higher in earlier periods (10% in 2045) and declines over time as the downward pressures have an increasing effect (3% in 2060).

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Emissions related to buildings construction materials and buildings operations11 are expected to increase marginally by 2060 in the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS).

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However, this could be the opposite when retrofits involve dismantling portions of walls to improve insulation or in the adoption of advanced renovation techniques such as multiple-skin façades12 for commercial buildings.

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For instance, dismantling the ground floor to put in more insulation can require approximately 8% of the steel and 10% of the cement initially used for buildings construction (Beccali et al., 2013).

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The global share of RCC-frame buildings reached over 50% in 2017, which is an increase of more than 15 percentage points since 1990.

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This is due to material availability and other construction considerations such as height, tensile strength, moisture and flammability.13 As the world’s largest material consumer, China has experienced such a transition from wood to RCC construction (Wang et al., 2015).

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For example, substitution to wood (timber) and other natural materials such as earth, clay or straw bales is not part of the current analysis, which other studies have found to be a strategy for reducing embodied carbon of buildings (Malmqvist et al., 2018).

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For example, a study based on 30 buildings in the United Kingdom found that 35-45% of structural steel in those buildings was unnecessary to fulfil the load-bearing function of the frame, largely due to overspecification in the design stage (Dunant et al., 2018).

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An example of a holistic approach is the 3for2 design for tall buildings, which uses façade- and floor-integrated mechanical and electrical elements for enhanced ventilation and thermal gains.

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Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), the most common type of cement, generally contains more than 90% clinker, with the remainder being gypsum and fine limestone.

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Enhancing the design of buildings could theoretically lead to savings greater than 30% for steel and 15% for cement, but the fragmentation and variability of the construction value chain is a critical hindrance to that material savings potential.

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It is lower in other developed countries such as the United States and Japan.14 In rapidly developing and emerging economies, high demolition rates may bring average lifetimes down to 30 years (Hong et al., 2014).

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China demolished nearly 10 million m2 of floor area every year in the late 2000s (Shanghai Statistical Bureau, 2015), which was approximately 15% of the area built annually during this period.

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The remaining 15% of life-cycle emissions are incurred by the industrial activities along the entire supply chain that mine, form, refine and shape the materials that become cars and trucks.

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Global steel demand for road vehicles has more than doubled since 1990, while global aluminium demand for road vehicles has more than tripled.

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Recent tracking of vehicle weights and material ratios show that new manufacturing processes, stronger alloys and computer-assisted vehicle design have enabled vehicle designers to achieve weight reductions of approximately 5-15% within one to five model years (Isenstadt and German, 2017).

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An example of reducing weight within the same material is thin-walling for cast iron components, which was able to achieve up to 40% weight reductions for those components (Jhaveri et al., 2018).

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This savings potential can be maximised by designing vehicles using methods that do not lock in specific, costly subsystem and component designs (Alonso et al., 2012).

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Optimistic industry forecasts expect that by 2025, most car bonnets, one-half of all door materials and between one-quarter and one-third of boots, roofs and wings will be made of aluminium, with large potential for increased reliance on aluminium in the automotive industry (Isenstadt and German, 2017).  Plastics and composites.

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This estimate is also a midpoint “consensus” value; the full range of fuel-mass coefficients reported in studies is from 0.315 to 0.71 (Kim and Wallington, 2013).

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Using a Monte Carlo analysis, they found the life cycle probability of the lightweight glider reducing life-cycle emissions to be 100% for an ICE vehicle or hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) running on various combinations of gasoline and ethanol and 74% for a BEV powered by electricity of varying carbon intensity.

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The battery currently makes up about one-half of the cost of a BEV (Lutsey et al., 2018), and may continue to make up a large share of the vehicle cost for at least the next few decades.

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Currently, considerable amounts of steel and aluminium are lost during vehicle manufacture, with typically about 70 to 80% of steel and to 85% of aluminium entering the manufacturing plant ending up as part of the vehicle.

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These are some of the lowest yields among end-use applications (Cullen, Allwood and Bambach, 2012; Liu, Bangs and Müller, 2013).

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In the CTS, in 2060, demand for steel is 33% lower than in the RTS, while changes in demand are marginal for aluminium (3% lower) and plastics and composites (4% higher).

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The Future of Rail publication provides further details on these dynamics, as well as a discussion of the potential energy, environmental and societal benefits of rail (IEA, 2019).

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Rolling resistance effects of road surface roughness, texture and deflection can account for 15-50% of total vehicle fuel consumption, depending primarily on vehicle speed (Beuving et al., 2004).

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Studies have shown that reducing rolling resistance on roads by 10% leads to fuel economy gains of 1-2% (Evans et al., 2009; National Research Council of The National Academies, 2006).

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Pushing lightweighting further to its realistic limits leads to additional use-phase emissions reduction in the MEF, equivalent to an additional 10% of CTS PLDV use-phase emissions in 2030 and 20% in 2060.

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The absolute emissions saving in the MEF in 2060 is about 25% lower than in 2030, despite more aggressive lightweighting.

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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom080_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>

A stronger push to lightweighting results in additional use-phase savings in the MEF, equivalent to an additional 4% of CTS LCV and HDV use-phase emissions in 2030 and 9% in 2060.

Evidence card JSONRendered card

Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.

python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom080_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>

Emissions from material production for the LCV and HDVs value chain are marginally higher (about 2%) in the MEF than in the CTS in 2060, which is outweighed by use-phase emissions savings.

Evidence card JSONRendered card

Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.

python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom080_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>

In 2060, a considerable proportion of LCVs and HDVs will still run on diesel, resulting in considerable emissions savings from lightweighting.

Evidence card JSONRendered card

Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.

python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom080_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>

In 2030, 11% of the global PLDV and 8% of the LCV and HDV stock is electric (includes BEVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles) in the CTS, in comparison to 6% and 5% in the RTS.

Evidence card JSONRendered card