Election administration

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In particular, the 2024 Global State of Democracy report emphasizes how procedural and substantive pressures influence public perceptions of elections, and how those perceptions in turn shape democratic outcomes.

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This report thus builds upon the contributions of International IDEA’s Perceptions of Democracy Survey report, released earlier in 2024, by shifting the level of inquiry for democracy assessment out of the ivory tower and into the public square.

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Between mid-2020 and mid- 2024, one in five elections was challenged in at least one legal proceeding, with voting and vote counting emerging as the most-litigated aspects of the electoral process.

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Incumbent parties have lost presidential elections and parliamentary majorities in many highly watched elections in 2023 and 2024.

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This calculation is based on voting-age population statistics for the countries that have national elections in 2024 and that have experienced significant declines in Credible Elections (compared with 2018).

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This report is further informed by the Democracy Tracker, a qualitative data project that provides event-centric information on democracy developments in 173 countries, with a data series beginning in August 2022 and updated every month after that.

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The Democracy Tracker reports events that signal The data covered 173 countries in 2023, but the number was lower in years before the mid-1990s.

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The GSoD Indices aggregate indicators from 24 data sources (see Box 0.1), which include observational data from United Nations agencies, expert coded data from academic programmes and some data collected directly by International IDEA.

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Each index in the GSoD Indices ranges from 0 to 1, with 1 being the most democratic; the boundaries are set by the best and worst observed values across all countries and years.

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Some coup leaders have tried to justify their actions by citing growing, unaddressed violence and insecurity (Mcallister 2023).

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Beyond what has been seen in other countries in the region, in El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has systematically derailed democratic checks on power by weakening term limits, starving the opposition of funding, intimidating the press and instituting a state of emergency that has allowed him to severely restrict human rights (Meléndez-Sánchez 2024).

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In 2023, where there were advances, they occurred most frequently in factors in the categories of Rule of Law and Rights—Absence of Corruption, Freedom of Expression, Economic Equality and Access to Justice.

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While the 18 countries that have improved in Absence of Corruption present a hopeful sign, it is important to note that several remain low-performing (Burundi, Dominican Republic, Iraq and Kazakhstan) or home to more broadly troubling contexts (Afghanistan, Haiti, Saudi Arabia and Syria).

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In the USA, which has suffered declines in Civil Liberties and which has had to grapple with questions surrounding its electoral process, elections in November 2024 will set the tone for international democracy-focused programming in many parts of the world.

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One good example of a response to these developments was a code of conduct that political parties proactively signed in the lead-up to elections for the European Parliament, committing to actions that can mitigate many of these issues (see Box 2.1).

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Poland now faces a time of transition; the coming years will determine whether or not the democratic contraction will be substantially reversed (Bloom and Hudson 2023).

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Past elections in Serbia have been tainted by excessive incumbency advantages, but the 2023 election was notably worse in several respects.

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It is an ambiguous case, in which there has been a significant decline in the Credible Elections index, but the final outcome of the 2023 election was that the person who received the most votes (Bernardo Arévalo) took office (Schwartz 2024).

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Ultimately, a combination of popular mobilization, international pressure and the use of writs of amparo by Arévalo’s supporters ensured that he would be sworn in as president (for more information on writs of amparo and their application in Guatemala see Kurtenbach, Reder and Ripplinger 2024).

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The 2023 GSoD report defined countervailing institutions as the set of governmental and non-governmental institutions that balance the distribution of power between the branches of government and ensure that popular priorities regularly and consistently feature in decision making.

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Most of the countries with declines are in the low performing range (below 0.4/1), as already-dire situations worsened further in places such as Afghanistan, Belarus, Myanmar and Nicaragua.

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Both the 2020 and 2024 elections were marred by accusations of fraud and by opposition boycotts (Massey 2020; Reuters 2024b).

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In extreme contexts such as low-performing Afghanistan, Myanmar (State Administration Council) and Sudan and mid-range-performing Israel, for example, authorities have restricted the rights of journalists to operate freely (or at all), as well as people’s right to assemble and move about (Endeshaw 2023; Sharon 2023).

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In multiple Latin American countries, public security challenges have recently been met with heavy-handed state responses, which have—in some cases— included allegations of human rights abuses (Roy and Cheatham 2023).

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The use of excessive police force was described by some advocacy organizations as ‘quashing’ the right to protest (Amnesty International USA 2024; International IDEA 2024i).

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The law was controversial, sparking multiple protests and concerns about the undermining of free speech (CIVICUS 2021; Greek Ministry of Education and Religious Affairs 2021).

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Other high-performing countries in Europe, including Italy and Slovakia, have also seen executive attempts to exert pressure on the media (Mapping Media Freedom 2023; Reporters without Borders 2024).

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In Canada, which is also mid-range-performing (having dropped from high performance between 2019 and 2020), declines may be due to reports that the wealth gap between high- and low-income households increased at the fastest pace ever in the first quarter of 2023.

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In its 10th report on Norway, the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women praised the country for the progress made to close the gender gap in education and employment.

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Notably, however, high-performing Norway is considering a new legal aid scheme as well as a new consent based provision on rape (United Nations Office at Geneva 2023).

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These include the passage of a bill to implement a gender quota for the lower house of parliament and state assemblies in India and a landmark bill that would guarantee extra seats for women in provincial assemblies in the Solomon Islands (Brechenmacher 2023; RNZ 2024; Solomon Islands Government 2024).

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Building on previous amendments that had gradually introduced gender parity, a groundbreaking 2019 constitutional reform established ‘parity in everything’ as a permanent principle in all branches of government to guarantee women’s access to politics, government and the administration of justice (Ravel 2024; Piscopo and Vázquez Correa 2023).

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This pattern was apparent in the Americas, where prosecutors and the courts were used to try to weaken judicial independence and oversight in Guatemala (International IDEA 2024e) and Peru (ICG 2024).

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In countries such as Indonesia and Thailand (International IDEA 2024c), constitutional courts were used to further leaders’ specific agendas related to elections.

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The Court ruled again in 2024 to grant the temporary release on bail of another key opposition leader so that he could participate in elections (The Wire 2024).

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Indeed, Rule of Law concerns have remained at the top of the EU’s agenda, exemplified by the convening of the EU General Affairs Council in April 2024 by Belgium, which held the Presidency of the European Council at the time.

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For example, levels of Absence of Corruption have improved to match those seen in 2015 (the high point before the 2016 election).

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The politicization of elections has impacted public perceptions; a recent survey that International IDEA fielded in the USA found that less than half of Americans agreed that the 2020 election was free and fair (International IDEA 2024g).

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Money in Politics and Rule of Law Overview While most countries in the world have laws regulating the funding of political parties and electoral campaigns, political finance scandals and allegations that implicate national leaders, politicians and business leaders remain prevalent across all regions, including the recent cases in Colombia (Daniels 2023), Japan (Sieg 2024) and South Korea (The Korea Times 2024).

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The Electoral Reform Act 2022 provides that online political advertisements must be clearly labelled as such and must also contain a detailed transparency notice (Ireland 2022).

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This decline has occurred despite many innovations around the world (especially since the Covid-19 pandemic) aimed at making electoral processes more accessible.

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South Korea provides another example here: through the early voting period, anyone can vote at any polling station in the country within or outside the constituency of registration without a specific reason to do so (중앙선거관리위원회 [National Election Commission] 2023; KBS 2024).

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The trends in every region are negative (though less so in Asia and the Pacific), and there was notably low turnout in 2023, including in Tunisia (10.6 per cent of the voting-age population), Nigeria (20.6 per cent), Switzerland (36.1 per cent) and Cyprus (38.0 per cent) (International IDEA n.d.a).

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However, the declines in Civil Society we observed from to 2023 took place (for the most part) in contexts that were already very challenging and where authoritarian practices had become further entrenched.

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This ruling marks the first time an international court has upheld a human rights–based claim to climate protection (International IDEA 2024h).

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It remains to be seen what the remainder of the 2024 elections super-cycle holds, but it is only democracy that offers a promise of new beginnings, even in the most uncertain of times.

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Some new research indicates that people’s negative perceptions of electoral integrity are based in part on problems as broad as political polarization and a general mistrust of government (Kousser 2023).

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Practitioners, through the Global Commission on Elections, Democracy and Security, consider political equality to be an additional core component of this concept (2012: 6).

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Even here, of course, it may be contentious to claim that ‘global norms’ are ‘owned’ by everyone or are universally applicable (Mutua 2000).

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Indeed, countries that hold elections without a bare minimum of the enabling rights required for participation are seen as ‘electoral autocracies’ (Lührmann, Tannenberg and Lindberg 2018).

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Clearly controlled electoral environments are popularly understood as little more than ‘shams’, evidenced recently by the severely repressed media, the lack of opposition parties and the climate of fear that marked the Belarusian and Russian elections (Komin 2024; Liubakova 2024).

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Experts do consider violence to be important, and one study found that reducing the threat of violence at the polls is indeed likely to have an impact on assessments of electoral integrity (Frank and Martínez i Coma 2017).

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Somewhat in contrast to this, election observers often focus on violence (or the lack thereof) in their official reports (Matlosa 2021).

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McAllister and White (2011: 665) explain, ‘The concept of “fairness” is a qualitative judgment that voters themselves are in an ideal position to make … .

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When there are doubts about electoral integrity, people (and especially supporters of the losing party) are more likely to doubt the fairness of an election and the legitimacy of its outcome, which results in lower levels of trust (Mauk 2022).

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Birch (2008) demonstrates, for example, that elections utilizing proportional representation systems and public funding options are associated with higher public confidence.

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(2015: 8) found that people expressed more confidence about the fairness of an election in US states that had high scores in administrative quality, explaining that ‘technical improvements to electoral administration can improve voter perceptions of elections being fair’.

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A good example of this occurred in Switzerland in 2019, when the source code for a new Swiss Post electronic voting system was published, and researchers were able to uncover vulnerabilities, allowing the code to be revised before the vulnerability could be exploited (Swiss Federal Chancellery 2019).

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This kind of three-party interaction between the voter, an expert group and the EMB is an example of delegated trust (Warren 1999), in which trust in those with the capacity to verify the integrity of the system can act as a guarantor for the EMB.

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Another more recent study, however, found that observer reports can have effects that are in opposition to what they intend (Benstead, Kao and Lust 2020).

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This study found that positive statements from international observers in Jordan, for example, induced some citizens to make statements about the 2013 elections that were more negative than they otherwise would have made because they were influenced by their pre-existing negative beliefs that foreign governments were intervening in their country.

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SVAs, which include early voting, mobile ballot boxes, postal voting, proxy voting and telephone voting, have expanded the options people have to cast their ballots (International IDEA 2021).

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This is particularly the case with parties and candidates, from whom the public takes cues regarding what to care about (Arceneaux 2008; Druckman, Peterson and Slothuus 2013; Pyeatt and Yanus 2016; Zaller 1990).

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The following analysis is based on an original data set that covers all national elections that took place during the last four years, specifically between May and April 2024.

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In nearly all of these cases, the legal challenges were filed in contexts in which the GSoD Indices scores for Credible Elections were in the mid-range band of performance (0.4 to 0.7).

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The exceptions were in Czechia (2021) and Japan (2022), which were high-performing; and Burundi (2020), the Central African Republic (2020), Comoros (2023), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2023), Egypt (2020) and Uganda (2021), which were low-performing.

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The average winner’s vote share in presidential elections was actually higher among the disputed elections than in the non-disputed elections (67.3 per cent versus 63.4 per cent).

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In this environment, critics and analysts said mechanisms such as early voting were used to pressure people to participate (Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty 2024).

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In 19.5 per cent of the elections, a losing party or candidate (regardless of whether they represented a major or minor party) publicly rejected the results, and a legal challenge was filed in more than half of those cases (60.5 per cent).

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As a result, there may be cases in which issues or errors receive a disproportionate amount of unmerited attention (Rios Tobar 2024).

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