CLAIMBOUND / SOURCE-PUBLICATION EVIDENCE
Forests
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1. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 4
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Climate Change and Land An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Summary for Policymakers Edited by Valérie Masson-Delmotte Panmao Zhai Co-Chair Working Group I Co-Chair Working Group I Hans-Otto Pörtner Debra Roberts Co-Chair Working Group II Co-Chair Working Group II Jim Skea Eduardo Calvo Buendía Priyadarshi R.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 4- Captured
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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Climate Change and Land An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Summary for Policymakers Edited by Valérie Masson-Delmotte Panmao Zhai Co-Chair Working Group I Co-Chair Working Group I Hans-Otto Pörtner Debra Roberts Co-Chair Working Group II Co-Chair Working Group II Jim Skea Eduardo Calvo Buendía Priyadarshi R.2. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
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This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
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This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers.3. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
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In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
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In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R.4. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 9
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It was the first IPCC report to be produced by all three Working Groups in collaboration with the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), and it was the first IPCC report with more authors from developing countries than authors from developed countries.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 9- Captured
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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It was the first IPCC report to be produced by all three Working Groups in collaboration with the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), and it was the first IPCC report with more authors from developing countries than authors from developed countries.5. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 9
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The constructive interplay between the authors, who draft the report, and the Review Editors, who provide assurance that all comments are responded to, greatly helped the process.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 9- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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The constructive interplay between the authors, who draft the report, and the Review Editors, who provide assurance that all comments are responded to, greatly helped the process.6. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 10
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Summary for Policymakers A number of individuals provided support for the visual elements of the report and its communication.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Summary for Policymakers A number of individuals provided support for the visual elements of the report and its communication.7. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 10
Narrow public claim
The report was managed by the Technical Support Unit of IPCC Working Group III which has the generous financial support of the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the UK Government through its Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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The report was managed by the Technical Support Unit of IPCC Working Group III which has the generous financial support of the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the UK Government through its Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).8. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
Narrow public claim
IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the thematic assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) on Land Degradation and Restoration, the IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, and the Global Land Outlook of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the thematic assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) on Land Degradation and Restoration, the IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, and the Global Land Outlook of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).9. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
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The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%.10. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
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Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.11. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
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Land provides the basis for many other ecosystem functions and services,11 including cultural and regulating services, that are essential for humanity (high confidence).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 12- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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Land provides the basis for many other ecosystem functions and services,11 including cultural and regulating services, that are essential for humanity (high confidence).12. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
Narrow public claim
(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.2 L and is both a source and a sink of GHGs and plays a key role in the exchange of energy, water and aerosols between the land surface and atmosphere.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 12- Captured
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.2 L and is both a source and a sink of GHGs and plays a key role in the exchange of energy, water and aerosols between the land surface and atmosphere.13. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
Narrow public claim
(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.3 D ata available since 196113 show that global population growth and changes in per capita consumption of food, feed, fibre, timber and energy have caused unprecedented rates of land and freshwater use (very high confidence) with agriculture currently accounting for ca.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 12- Captured
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.2, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.3 D ata available since 196113 show that global population growth and changes in per capita consumption of food, feed, fibre, timber and energy have caused unprecedented rates of land and freshwater use (very high confidence) with agriculture currently accounting for ca.14. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
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(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.3, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.4 D ata available since 1961 shows the per capita supply of vegetable oils and meat has more than doubled and the supply of food calories per capita has increased by about one third (high confidence).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 12- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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(Figure SPM.1) {1.1, 1.3, 5.1, 5.5} A.1.4 D ata available since 1961 shows the per capita supply of vegetable oils and meat has more than doubled and the supply of food calories per capita has increased by about one third (high confidence).15. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
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The annual time series in B and D-F are based on the most comprehensive, available data from national statistics, in most cases from FAOSTAT which starts in 1961.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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The annual time series in B and D-F are based on the most comprehensive, available data from national statistics, in most cases from FAOSTAT which starts in 1961.16. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
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(Table SPM.1) {1.1, 2.3} C: Depicts shares of different uses of the global, ice-free land area for approximately the year 2015, ordered along a gradient of decreasing land-use intensity from left to right.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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(Table SPM.1) {1.1, 2.3} C: Depicts shares of different uses of the global, ice-free land area for approximately the year 2015, ordered along a gradient of decreasing land-use intensity from left to right.17. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
Narrow public claim
The inland wetland extent (including peatlands) is based on aggregated data from more than 2000 time series that report changes in local wetland area over time. {3.1, 4.2, 4.6} A.2 Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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The inland wetland extent (including peatlands) is based on aggregated data from more than 2000 time series that report changes in local wetland area over time. {3.1, 4.2, 4.6} A.2 Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence).18. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
Narrow public claim
From 1850-1900 to 2006-2015 mean land surface air temperature has increased by 1.53°C (very likely range from 1.38°C to 1.68°C) while GMST increased by 0.87°C (likely range from 0.75°C to 0.99°C).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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From 1850-1900 to 2006-2015 mean land surface air temperature has increased by 1.53°C (very likely range from 1.38°C to 1.68°C) while GMST increased by 0.87°C (likely range from 0.75°C to 0.99°C).19. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 15
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Summary for Policymakers A.2.6 G lobal warming has led to shifts of climate zones in many world regions, including expansion of arid climate zones and contraction of polar climate zones (high confidence).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 15- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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Summary for Policymakers A.2.6 G lobal warming has led to shifts of climate zones in many world regions, including expansion of arid climate zones and contraction of polar climate zones (high confidence).20. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 15
Narrow public claim
These net emissions are mostly due to deforestation, partly offset by afforestation/reforestation, and emissions and removals by other land use activities (very high confidence).23 There is no clear trend in annual emissions since 1990 (medium confidence).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 15- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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6634b55031cd08820c7069138fa1e1c26be98f5f1b9674d6ac15a4fb1158b223- Reproduction
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These net emissions are mostly due to deforestation, partly offset by afforestation/reforestation, and emissions and removals by other land use activities (very high confidence).23 There is no clear trend in annual emissions since 1990 (medium confidence).21. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 16
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Global models consider as managed forest those lands that were subject to harvest whereas, consistent with IPCC guidelines, national GHG inventories define managed forest more broadly.
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Global models consider as managed forest those lands that were subject to harvest whereas, consistent with IPCC guidelines, national GHG inventories define managed forest more broadly.22. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 16
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On this larger area, inventories can also consider the natural response of land to human-induced environmental changes as anthropogenic, while the global model approach (Table SPM.1) treats this response as part of the non-anthropogenic sink.
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On this larger area, inventories can also consider the natural response of land to human-induced environmental changes as anthropogenic, while the global model approach (Table SPM.1) treats this response as part of the non-anthropogenic sink.23. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 18
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.1 | Data sources and notes: Estimates are only given until 2016 as this is the latest date when data are available for all gases.
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.1 | Data sources and notes: Estimates are only given until 2016 as this is the latest date when data are available for all gases.24. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 18
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It includes emissions from fibre and other non-food agricultural products since these are not separated from food use in databases.
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It includes emissions from fibre and other non-food agricultural products since these are not separated from food use in databases.25. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 19
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Summary for Policymakers A.4 Changes in land conditions,25 either from land-use or climate change, affect global and regional climate (high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers A.4 Changes in land conditions,25 either from land-use or climate change, affect global and regional climate (high confidence).26. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 19
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Changes in land conditions can affect temperature and rainfall in regions as far as hundreds of kilometres away (high confidence). {2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.4, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 2} A.4.3 C limate change is projected to alter land conditions with feedbacks on regional climate.
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Changes in land conditions can affect temperature and rainfall in regions as far as hundreds of kilometres away (high confidence). {2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.4, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 2} A.4.3 C limate change is projected to alter land conditions with feedbacks on regional climate.27. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 20
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SSP3 includes high population growth (~13 billion in 2100), low income and continued inequalities, material-intensive consumption and production, barriers to trade, and slow rates of technological change.
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SSP3 includes high population growth (~13 billion in 2100), low income and continued inequalities, material-intensive consumption and production, barriers to trade, and slow rates of technological change.28. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 20
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SSP4 includes medium population growth (~9 billion in 2100), medium income, but significant inequality within and across regions.
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SSP4 includes medium population growth (~9 billion in 2100), medium income, but significant inequality within and across regions.29. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 21
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Risks are lower in SSP1 compared with SSP3 given the same level of GMST increase.
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Risks are lower in SSP1 compared with SSP3 given the same level of GMST increase.30. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
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Risk levels are estimated assuming medium exposure and vulnerability driven by moderate trends in socioeconomic conditions broadly consistent with an SSP2 pathway. {Table SM7.4} Panel B: Risks associated with desertification, land degradation and food security due to climate change and patterns of socio-economic development.
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Risk levels are estimated assuming medium exposure and vulnerability driven by moderate trends in socioeconomic conditions broadly consistent with an SSP2 pathway. {Table SM7.4} Panel B: Risks associated with desertification, land degradation and food security due to climate change and patterns of socio-economic development.31. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
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Risks are assessed for two contrasted socio-economic pathways (SSP1 and SSP3 {Box SPM.1}) excluding the effects of targeted mitigation policies. {3.5, 4.2.1.2, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 6.1.4, 7.2, Table SM7.5} Risks are not indicated beyond 3°C because SSP1 does not exceed this level of temperature change.
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Risks are assessed for two contrasted socio-economic pathways (SSP1 and SSP3 {Box SPM.1}) excluding the effects of targeted mitigation policies. {3.5, 4.2.1.2, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 6.1.4, 7.2, Table SM7.5} Risks are not indicated beyond 3°C because SSP1 does not exceed this level of temperature change.32. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
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(Figure SPM.2) {2.2, 3.5, 4.2, 4.4, 4.7, 5.1, 5.2, 5.8, 6.1, 7.2, 7.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6} A.5.1 W ith increasing warming, the frequency, intensity and duration of heat related events including heatwaves are projected to continue to increase through the 21st century (high confidence).
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(Figure SPM.2) {2.2, 3.5, 4.2, 4.4, 4.7, 5.1, 5.2, 5.8, 6.1, 7.2, 7.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6} A.5.1 W ith increasing warming, the frequency, intensity and duration of heat related events including heatwaves are projected to continue to increase through the 21st century (high confidence).33. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
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The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected to increase in many regions (high confidence). {2.2.5, 3.5.1, 4.2.3, 5.2} A.5.2 W ith increasing warming, climate zones are projected to further shift poleward in the middle and high latitudes (high confidence).
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The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected to increase in many regions (high confidence). {2.2.5, 3.5.1, 4.2.3, 5.2} A.5.2 W ith increasing warming, climate zones are projected to further shift poleward in the middle and high latitudes (high confidence).34. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 23
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The most vulnerable people will be more severely affected (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 5.8.1, 7.2.2.2, 7.3.1} A.5.5 I n drylands, climate change and desertification are projected to cause reductions in crop and livestock productivity (high confidence), modify the plant species mix and reduce biodiversity (medium confidence).
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The most vulnerable people will be more severely affected (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 5.8.1, 7.2.2.2, 7.3.1} A.5.5 I n drylands, climate change and desertification are projected to cause reductions in crop and livestock productivity (high confidence), modify the plant species mix and reduce biodiversity (medium confidence).35. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 23
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Extreme weather and climate or slow-onset events may lead to increased displacement, disrupted food chains, threatened livelihoods (high confidence), and contribute to exacerbated stresses for conflict (medium confidence). {3.4.2, 4.7.3, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 5.8.2, 7.2.2, 7.3.1} A.5.8 U nsustainable land management has led to negative economic impacts (high confidence).
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Extreme weather and climate or slow-onset events may lead to increased displacement, disrupted food chains, threatened livelihoods (high confidence), and contribute to exacerbated stresses for conflict (medium confidence). {3.4.2, 4.7.3, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 5.8.2, 7.2.2, 7.3.1} A.5.8 U nsustainable land management has led to negative economic impacts (high confidence).36. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 23
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SSPs with greater cropland expansion result in larger declines in biodiversity (high confidence). {6.1.4} A.6.2 R isks related to water scarcity in drylands are lower in pathways with low population growth, less increase in water demand, and high adaptive capacity, as in SSP1 {Box SPM.1}.
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SSPs with greater cropland expansion result in larger declines in biodiversity (high confidence). {6.1.4} A.6.2 R isks related to water scarcity in drylands are lower in pathways with low population growth, less increase in water demand, and high adaptive capacity, as in SSP1 {Box SPM.1}.37. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 23
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A.6.3 R isks related to climate change driven land degradation are higher in pathways with a higher population, increased land-use change, low adaptive capacity and other barriers to adaptation (e.g., SSP3).
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A.6.3 R isks related to climate change driven land degradation are higher in pathways with a higher population, increased land-use change, low adaptive capacity and other barriers to adaptation (e.g., SSP3).38. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
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Summary for Policymakers A.6.4 R isks related to food security are greater in pathways with lower income, increased food demand, increased food prices resulting from competition for land, more limited trade, and other challenges to adaptation (e.g., SSP3) (high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers A.6.4 R isks related to food security are greater in pathways with lower income, increased food demand, increased food prices resulting from competition for land, more limited trade, and other challenges to adaptation (e.g., SSP3) (high confidence).39. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
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(Figure SPM.2b) {7.2} A.6.5 U rban expansion is projected to lead to conversion of cropland leading to losses in food production (high confidence).
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(Figure SPM.2b) {7.2} A.6.5 U rban expansion is projected to lead to conversion of cropland leading to losses in food production (high confidence).40. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
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Strategies for reducing these impacts can include urban and peri-urban food production and management of urban expansion, as well as urban green infrastructure that can reduce climate risks in cities32 (high confidence).
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Strategies for reducing these impacts can include urban and peri-urban food production and management of urban expansion, as well as urban green infrastructure that can reduce climate risks in cities32 (high confidence).41. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
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(Figure SPM.3) {4.9.1, 5.5, 5.6, 6.3, 6.4, 7.5.6} The land systems considered in this report do not include urban ecosystem dynamics in detail.
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(Figure SPM.3) {4.9.1, 5.5, 5.6, 6.3, 6.4, 7.5.6} The land systems considered in this report do not include urban ecosystem dynamics in detail.42. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 25
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(very high confidence) (Figure SPM.3) {2.6, 4.8, 5.6, 6.1, 6.3, 6.4} B.1.1 S ome land-related actions are already being taken that contribute to climate change adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development.
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(very high confidence) (Figure SPM.3) {2.6, 4.8, 5.6, 6.1, 6.3, 6.4} B.1.1 S ome land-related actions are already being taken that contribute to climate change adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development.43. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 25
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These response options require integration of biophysical, socioeconomic and other enabling factors. {6.3, 6.4.5, 7.5.6, Cross-Chapter Box 10 in Chapter 7} B.1.2 W hile some response options have immediate impacts, others take decades to deliver measurable results.
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These response options require integration of biophysical, socioeconomic and other enabling factors. {6.3, 6.4.5, 7.5.6, Cross-Chapter Box 10 in Chapter 7} B.1.2 W hile some response options have immediate impacts, others take decades to deliver measurable results.44. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 25
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However, accumulated carbon in vegetation and soils is at risk from future loss (or sink reversal) triggered by disturbances such as flood, drought, fire, or pest outbreaks, or future poor management (high confidence). {6.4.1} B.2 Most of the response options assessed contribute positively to sustainable development and other societal goals (high confidence).
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However, accumulated carbon in vegetation and soils is at risk from future loss (or sink reversal) triggered by disturbances such as flood, drought, fire, or pest outbreaks, or future poor management (high confidence). {6.4.1} B.2 Most of the response options assessed contribute positively to sustainable development and other societal goals (high confidence).45. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 26
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Widespread use at the scale of several millions of km2 globally could increase risks for desertification, land degradation, food security and sustainable development (medium confidence).
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Widespread use at the scale of several millions of km2 globally could increase risks for desertification, land degradation, food security and sustainable development (medium confidence).46. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 26
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(high confidence) (Figure SPM.3) {4.2, 4.5, 6.4; Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 6} B.3.3 T he production and use of biomass for bioenergy can have co-benefits, adverse side-effects, and risks for land degradation, food insecurity, GHG emissions and other environmental and sustainable development goals (high confidence).
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(high confidence) (Figure SPM.3) {4.2, 4.5, 6.4; Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 6} B.3.3 T he production and use of biomass for bioenergy can have co-benefits, adverse side-effects, and risks for land degradation, food insecurity, GHG emissions and other environmental and sustainable development goals (high confidence).47. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 27
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Summary for Policymakers B.4 Many activities for combating desertification can contribute to climate change adaptation with mitigation co-benefits, as well as to halting biodiversity loss with sustainable development co benefits to society (high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers B.4 Many activities for combating desertification can contribute to climate change adaptation with mitigation co-benefits, as well as to halting biodiversity loss with sustainable development co benefits to society (high confidence).48. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 27
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Such measures include avoiding deforestation and locally suitable practices including management of rangeland and forest fires (high confidence). {3.4.2, 3.6.1, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 4.8.5} B.4.5 C urrently there is a lack of knowledge of adaptation limits and potential maladaptation to combined effects of climate change and desertification.
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Such measures include avoiding deforestation and locally suitable practices including management of rangeland and forest fires (high confidence). {3.4.2, 3.6.1, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 4.8.5} B.4.5 C urrently there is a lack of knowledge of adaptation limits and potential maladaptation to combined effects of climate change and desertification.49. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 28
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Summary for Policymakers B.5 Sustainable land management,33 including sustainable forest management,34 can prevent and reduce land degradation, maintain land productivity, and sometimes reverse the adverse impacts of climate change on land degradation (very high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers B.5 Sustainable land management,33 including sustainable forest management,34 can prevent and reduce land degradation, maintain land productivity, and sometimes reverse the adverse impacts of climate change on land degradation (very high confidence).50. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 28
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Management options that reduce vulnerability to soil erosion and nutrient loss include growing green manure crops and cover crops, crop residue retention, reduced/zero tillage, and maintenance of ground cover through improved grazing management (very high confidence). {4.8} B.5.2 T he following options also have mitigation co-benefits.
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Management options that reduce vulnerability to soil erosion and nutrient loss include growing green manure crops and cover crops, crop residue retention, reduced/zero tillage, and maintenance of ground cover through improved grazing management (very high confidence). {4.8} B.5.2 T he following options also have mitigation co-benefits.51. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 29
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Summary for Policymakers B.6.1 P ractices that contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation in cropland include increasing soil organic matter, erosion control, improved fertiliser management, improved crop management, for example paddy rice management, and use of varieties and genetic improvements for heat and drought tolerance.
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Summary for Policymakers B.6.1 P ractices that contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation in cropland include increasing soil organic matter, erosion control, improved fertiliser management, improved crop management, for example paddy rice management, and use of varieties and genetic improvements for heat and drought tolerance.52. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 29
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Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, for example through sustainable land management approaches (high confidence). {4.8, 5.3.3, 5.5.1, 5.6} B.6.2 D iversification in the food system (e.g., implementation of integrated production systems, broad-based genetic resources, and diets) can reduce risks from climate change (medium confidence).
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Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, for example through sustainable land management approaches (high confidence). {4.8, 5.3.3, 5.5.1, 5.6} B.6.2 D iversification in the food system (e.g., implementation of integrated production systems, broad-based genetic resources, and diets) can reduce risks from climate change (medium confidence).53. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 30
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Summary for Policymakers B.7.4 M ost mitigation pathways include substantial deployment of bioenergy technologies.
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Summary for Policymakers B.7.4 M ost mitigation pathways include substantial deployment of bioenergy technologies.54. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 31
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Magnitudes of contributions are categorised using thresholds for positive or negative impacts.
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Magnitudes of contributions are categorised using thresholds for positive or negative impacts.55. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 31
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Options shown are those for which data are available to assess global potential for three or more land challenges.
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Options shown are those for which data are available to assess global potential for three or more land challenges.56. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 33
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Summary for Policymakers Figure SPM.3: Potential global contribution of response options to mitigation, adaptation, combating desertification and land degradation, and enhancing food security. | This Figure is based on an aggregation of information from studies with a wide variety of assumptions about how response options are implemented and the contexts in which they occur.
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Summary for Policymakers Figure SPM.3: Potential global contribution of response options to mitigation, adaptation, combating desertification and land degradation, and enhancing food security. | This Figure is based on an aggregation of information from studies with a wide variety of assumptions about how response options are implemented and the contexts in which they occur.57. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 33
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Additional supporting evidence for the qualitative assessments in the second row for each option in panel B can be found in the Table’s 6.6, 6.55, 6.56 and 6.58, Section 6.3.5.1.3, and Box 6.1c.
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Additional supporting evidence for the qualitative assessments in the second row for each option in panel B can be found in the Table’s 6.6, 6.55, 6.56 and 6.58, Section 6.3.5.1.3, and Box 6.1c.58. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 34
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(Figure SPM.2) {3.4.2, 4.1.6, 4.7, 4.8.5, 5.1.2, 5.7.3, 7.3, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.5} C.1.2 I nsecure land tenure affects the ability of people, communities and organisations to make changes to land that can advance adaptation and mitigation (medium confidence).
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(Figure SPM.2) {3.4.2, 4.1.6, 4.7, 4.8.5, 5.1.2, 5.7.3, 7.3, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.5} C.1.2 I nsecure land tenure affects the ability of people, communities and organisations to make changes to land that can advance adaptation and mitigation (medium confidence).59. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 34
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(Figure SPM.4} {1.2, 4.8, 4.9.2, 5.3.2, 5.6, 5.6.6, 5.7.2, 7.3.2, 7.4, 7.4.2, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.4.8, 7.5.5, 7.5.6, 7.6.4} C.2 Policies that operate across the food system, including those that reduce food loss and waste and influence dietary choices, enable more sustainable land-use management, enhanced food security and low emissions trajectories (high confidence).
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(Figure SPM.4} {1.2, 4.8, 4.9.2, 5.3.2, 5.6, 5.6.6, 5.7.2, 7.3.2, 7.4, 7.4.2, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.4.8, 7.5.5, 7.5.6, 7.6.4} C.2 Policies that operate across the food system, including those that reduce food loss and waste and influence dietary choices, enable more sustainable land-use management, enhanced food security and low emissions trajectories (high confidence).60. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 35
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Summary for Policymakers C.2.2 R eflecting the environmental costs of land-degrading agricultural practices can incentivise more sustainable land management (high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers C.2.2 R eflecting the environmental costs of land-degrading agricultural practices can incentivise more sustainable land management (high confidence).61. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 35
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Strengthened multi-level, hybrid and cross-sectoral governance, as well as policies developed and adopted in an iterative, coherent, adaptive and flexible manner can maximise co-benefits and minimise trade-offs, given that land management decisions are made from farm level to national scales, and both climate and land policies often range across multiple sectors, departments and agencies (high confidence).
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Strengthened multi-level, hybrid and cross-sectoral governance, as well as policies developed and adopted in an iterative, coherent, adaptive and flexible manner can maximise co-benefits and minimise trade-offs, given that land management decisions are made from farm level to national scales, and both climate and land policies often range across multiple sectors, departments and agencies (high confidence).62. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 36
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Summary for Policymakers C.4.1 S uccessful implementation of sustainable land management practices requires accounting for local environmental and socio economic conditions (very high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers C.4.1 S uccessful implementation of sustainable land management practices requires accounting for local environmental and socio economic conditions (very high confidence).63. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 36
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Coordinated action across a range of actors including businesses, producers, consumers, land managers and policymakers in partnership with indigenous peoples and local communities enable conditions for the adoption of response options (high confidence) {3.1.3, 3.6.1, 3.6.2, 4.8.2, 5.5.1, 5.6.4, 5.7.1, 5.7.4, 6.2, 7.3, 7.4.6, 7.6.4} C.4.4 E mpowering women can bring synergies and co-benefits to household food security and sustainable land management (high confidence).
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Coordinated action across a range of actors including businesses, producers, consumers, land managers and policymakers in partnership with indigenous peoples and local communities enable conditions for the adoption of response options (high confidence) {3.1.3, 3.6.1, 3.6.2, 4.8.2, 5.5.1, 5.6.4, 5.7.1, 5.7.4, 6.2, 7.3, 7.4.6, 7.6.4} C.4.4 E mpowering women can bring synergies and co-benefits to household food security and sustainable land management (high confidence).64. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 37
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The lines show the median across Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for three alternative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 at RCP1.9); shaded areas show the range across models.
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The lines show the median across Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for three alternative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 at RCP1.9); shaded areas show the range across models.65. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 39
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SSP2 and SSP5 at RCP1.9.38 For each pathway, the shaded areas show the range across all IAMs; the line indicates the median across models.
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SSP2 and SSP5 at RCP1.9.38 For each pathway, the shaded areas show the range across all IAMs; the line indicates the median across models.66. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 39
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(Box SPM.1) {1.3.2, 2.7.2, 6.1, 6.4.4, 7.4.2, 7.4.4, 7.4.5, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.4.8, 7.5.3, 7.5.6, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6} Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are scenarios that include timeseries of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover.
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(Box SPM.1) {1.3.2, 2.7.2, 6.1, 6.4.4, 7.4.2, 7.4.4, 7.4.5, 7.4.6, 7.4.7, 7.4.8, 7.5.3, 7.5.6, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6} Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are scenarios that include timeseries of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover.67. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 40
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Action in the near-term D.1 Actions can be taken in the near-term, based on existing knowledge, to address desertification, land degradation and food security while supporting longer-term responses that enable adaptation and mitigation to climate change.
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Action in the near-term D.1 Actions can be taken in the near-term, based on existing knowledge, to address desertification, land degradation and food security while supporting longer-term responses that enable adaptation and mitigation to climate change.68. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 40
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Co-benefits can contribute to poverty eradication and more resilient livelihoods for those who are vulnerable (high confidence). {3.4.2, 5.7, 7.5} D.2.1 N ear-term actions to promote sustainable land management will help reduce land and food-related vulnerabilities, and can create more resilient livelihoods, reduce land degradation and desertification, and loss of biodiversity (high confidence).
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Co-benefits can contribute to poverty eradication and more resilient livelihoods for those who are vulnerable (high confidence). {3.4.2, 5.7, 7.5} D.2.1 N ear-term actions to promote sustainable land management will help reduce land and food-related vulnerabilities, and can create more resilient livelihoods, reduce land degradation and desertification, and loss of biodiversity (high confidence).69. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 41
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Summary for Policymakers require upfront investment, actions to ensure sustainable land management can improve crop yields and the economic value of pasture.
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Summary for Policymakers require upfront investment, actions to ensure sustainable land management can improve crop yields and the economic value of pasture.70. IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 41
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Government support and improved access to credit can help overcome barriers to adoption, especially those faced by poor smallholder farmers (high confidence).
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Government support and improved access to credit can help overcome barriers to adoption, especially those faced by poor smallholder farmers (high confidence).