Insurance

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The global reinsurance market is expanding, with reported gross reinsurance premiums reaching $900 billion by the end of 2023.

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In terms of profitability, the non-life reinsurance market’s combined ratio improved to 95% in 2023, recovering from a sharp increase in 2022, which had marked its highest value since 2005.

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Introduction This report is based on the outcome of the 2024 Global Monitoring Exercise (GME), which is the International Association of Insurance Supervisors’ (IAIS’) framework for monitoring key risks and trends in the insurance sector and assessing the build-up of any potential systemic risk in the global insurance sector.

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The following criteria allow for broad coverage in terms of global participation in the SWM: (1) the jurisdiction is a member of the Financial Stability Board; or (2) the jurisdiction is a home jurisdiction of at least one internationally active insurance group and/or of an Insurer Pool participating insurer.

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These factors could worsen debt dynamics and increase protectionism, resulting in negative cross-border spillovers.

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Looking ahead, the global economy is forecast to grow by 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025.

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This includes corporate debt at 24%, sovereign debt at 18.1%, and loans and mortgages at 9.6%.

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Key liquidity needs are composed of surrender values for retail and institutional business, followed by claims, expenses and funding needs linked to repos, securities lending.

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Insurers’ profitability positions were supported by strong capital generation and favourable financial market conditions.

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It is calculated by adding the loss ratio (losses incurred relative to premiums earned) and the expense ratio (underwriting expenses against earned premiums).

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Additionally, there was a focus on the impact of market conditions, interest rate movements and strategic acquisitions on overall financial stability.

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This outlook is driven by continued capital generation, sound strategic asset allocation and compliance with evolving regulatory frameworks.

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Macroprudential themes The IAIS has continued to focus on two macroprudential themes, based on supervisory priorities identified through the annual GME: (1) key risks in the current macroeconomic environment; and (2) structural shifts in the life insurance sector, with a focus on asset allocation to alternative assets and cross border asset-intensive reinsurance.

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Insurers using debt funding may face liquidity pressures in a high interest rate environment, though larger insurers appear to have better access to funding.

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The 2024 GME identified four areas of attention with respect to interest rate and liquidity risk: (1) surrender risk; (2) funding risk; (3) derivatives and margin calls; and (4) the impact of AI/digitalisation.

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SWM data shows an increase in life insurance surrender rates across the 26 jurisdictions that submitted information from year-end to year-end 2023.

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Half of these surrender values pertain to contracts that carry no economic penalty and are redeemable within one week; however, fiscal disincentives may still apply.

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Insurers generally make limited use of debt funding, but in a high interest rate environment, those relying on it may face liquidity pressures during refinancing.

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Overview of measures to reduce funding risk taken by insurers and supervisors Key measures by supervisors: ] Monitoring insurers’ use of repurchase agreements and setting limits in anticipation of potential increases in short-term interest rates. ] Monitoring risks related to invested assets, particularly in real estate. ] Paying increased attention to insurers most affected by lapses and those using short-term debt.

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Derivatives are commonly used by insurers to hedge risks, enhance returns or manage interest rate exposure.

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As outlined in the 2023 GME, a key risk linked to using derivatives is the related margin calls, which could trigger liquidity risk.

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Other risks relating to derivatives are market risks, potential failure of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives counterparties and valuation risk.

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Overview of measures regarding AI systems As part of the feedback loop in the GME, supervisors and insurers were asked about the measures being taken to address risks from AI systems.

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These responses provide an anecdotal assessment of the steps that are being taken.

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The IAIS has been monitoring real estate exposures, with a particular focus on CRE in the 2024 GME.

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A few insurers are outliers and had considerably higher exposure, with some surpassing 10%.

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Overview of measures regarding commercial real estate Key measures by supervisors: ] Maintaining heightened monitoring, particularly focusing on insurers’ high-risk CRE portfolios. ] Conducting reviews on larger life insurers’ exposures. ] Requiring reporting of real estate valuation corrections in the ORSA. ] Actively managing liquidity risk for unit-linked property funds. ] Implementing stress tests focusing on CRE.

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Geopolitical risks encompass a broad spectrum of uncertainties that can profoundly affect both life and non-life insurers, as well as other industries.

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The primary impacts of geopolitical risks on insurers are most acutely felt within insurers’ investment portfolios, particularly for life insurers.

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Additionally, geopolitical risks can manifest as heightened operational risks for insurers, driven by regulatory changes, cyber security threats, supply chain disruptions and economic sanctions.

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Life insurers often deal with long-term liabilities, making them well suited to hold long-term, illiquid assets that can provide consistent returns over extended periods, subject to sound ALM.

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As highlighted in the 2023 GIMAR, investing in assets originated by related parties could give rise to conflicts of interest.

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Transactions with affiliated parties Transactions with affiliated parties are of lesser concern, although they remain a supervisory issue.

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It is particularly difficult to determine the value of private equity, collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), and collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) because of their intricate nature and the scarcity of transparent market data.

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Understanding the materiality of alternative investment exposure for selected geographies and sectors is essential for assessing associated risks and opportunities.

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Potential financial stability risks are contingent upon the proportion of alternative assets within insurers’ investment portfolios and the degree to which insurers dominate the alternative investments universe.

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Alternative assets, like private credit and infrastructure, can provide higher returns but can also introduce higher liquidity, complexity or other risks, making strong safeguards essential for effective risk management.

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Additionally, there are markets that have shown limited activity but significant interest in such agreements, with untapped growth potential.

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For example, the EU has life technical provisions of €4.3 trillion,20 while Japan holds ¥343 trillion in life insurance reserves.21 Lane Clark & Peacock LLP (lcp.uk.com).

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Overview of concerns, drivers and benefits associated with asset-intensive reinsurance Concerns ] Motivation for asset-intensive reinsurance: Cross-border asset-intensive reinsurance can be employed for capital, risk and financial management.

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However, it can also be used to benefit from regulatory differences. ] Concentration risks: Concerns arise due to a limited number of reinsurers and jurisdictions dominating the transaction volumes.

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While most supervisors do not directly oversee collateral arrangements, many establish clear expectations to minimise counterparty risk.

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Key supervisory concerns with asset-intensive reinsurance include potential concentration risks, increasing complexity and potential conflicts of interest.

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Most jurisdictions require some level of collateralisation for reinsurance agreements with non-licensed reinsurers.

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Leveraging ongoing work on level 3 assets is crucial, as there are significant overlaps.

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This integrated approach will ensure a comprehensive assessment of the risks associated with alternative assets.

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Note, the end-2023 data to calculate the cross-sectoral scores for banks is not yet available, so this will be calculated later in 2024.

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This cross-sectoral methodology was developed by the joint IAIS-BCBS Task Force on Banks and Insurers in 2018.

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As noted before, the increase in the level 3 assets indicator is driven by accounting changes, in particular the implementation of IFRS (see Section 4.3).

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As a result, many insurers have made the accounting choice, or have been required, to adopt fair value measurement for assets previously held at amortised cost.

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This shift in accounting practices is particularly evident for mortgage loans, which are now frequently measured at fair value and classified as level 3 assets within the fair value hierarchy.

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Climate data elements are now a regular feature of the GME, providing a global baseline of climate risk data for the insurance sector.

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Climate-related sectors are those economic sectors that are most likely to be affected by climate change, notably by transition risks.

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Sovereign debt instruments and real estate are classified as climate-related assets, in line with the 2021 Climate GIMAR.

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To approximate the exposures that would result from a look-through approach, it was assumed that entities or funds classified in the financial sector include climate-relevant assets in similar proportion to that of assets held directly by insurers.

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Changes compared to last year’s results can be attributed to differences in data coverage of the IAIS climate data collections.

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In the absence of insight into the actual exposures, the IAIS applied the same data adjustment to approximate a look-through approach as was used in previous years.34 The impact of this adjustment is an increase in the share of the six climate relevant sectors by 16% on a global level.

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The IAIS has commissioned CLIMADA Technologies to develop an open-source tool using the CLIMADA model to help supervisors assess the materiality of NatCat risks and the impact of climate change.

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Scenario analysis is a key tool to assess the risks relating to climate change.

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There is still uncertainty about the role of supervisors in transition plans and planning relating to climate risk.

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The GRMS was discontinued with the adoption of the Holistic Framework in 2019, including the launch of the GME.

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One downside of collecting this data through the SWM is that it reduced the granularity of data, as it was based on reinsurance data already collected in the supervisory frameworks.

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Regional differences emerge, with the split being more pronounced in Europe and Africa (17% life, 83% non-life), while equally distributed in the Americas (49% life, 51% non-life).

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The increase in net reinsurance premiums between 2022 and 2023 was driven mainly by the Americas, which increased by around $80 billion.

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In 2023, for the SWM sample, retention ratios were comparable for the reinsurance market and the overall insurance market which includes primary insurance business conducted by insurers and reinsurers (71% for both).

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However, since the total size of the US reinsurance market is underrepresented in the survey, caution should be used in interpreting the results.

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The decrease in 2023 was due to a relatively large increase in available capital resources compared to recoverables, among various jurisdictions.

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The spread between gross and net gearing ratios declined until 2017, indicating an increased use of collateral for retrocession.

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The high combined ratio in 2011 was driven by the severe tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand.

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From 2019 to 2021, this data was collected through the SWM reinsurance component.

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