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1. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 8
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Identifying Idiosyncratic Jumps in Stock Returns Editor’s Note (11/21/24): The following few changes were made after the initial release of this report.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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Identifying Idiosyncratic Jumps in Stock Returns Editor’s Note (11/21/24): The following few changes were made after the initial release of this report.2. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 9
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“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of percentage point).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of percentage point).3. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 9
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As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice.4. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 10
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Corrections and Revisions The data and analysis appearing in the Global Financial Stability Report are compiled by IMF staff at the time of publication.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 10- Captured
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Corrections and Revisions The data and analysis appearing in the Global Financial Stability Report are compiled by IMF staff at the time of publication.5. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 10
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Digital Multiple digital editions of the Global Financial Stability Report, including ePub, enhanced PDF, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at eLibrary.IMF.org/GFSROct24.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 10- Captured
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Digital Multiple digital editions of the Global Financial Stability Report, including ePub, enhanced PDF, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at eLibrary.IMF.org/GFSROct24.6. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 11
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In normal times, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 11- Captured
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In normal times, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries.7. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 11
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The report benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussions of the GFSR on October 8, 2024.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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The report benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussions of the GFSR on October 8, 2024.8. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 16
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Portfolio flows may become more volatile and access to international funding may be more difficult, especially for fron tier economies.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 16- Captured
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Portfolio flows may become more volatile and access to international funding may be more difficult, especially for fron tier economies.9. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 17
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However, net interest margin and bank profitability could be negatively impacted by interest rate cuts, and the temporary sell-off of some banks’ stocks in early August highlighted some of the risks ahead, particularly for a relatively large tail of weaker institutions facing challenges related to their business models (Figure ES.8).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 17- Captured
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However, net interest margin and bank profitability could be negatively impacted by interest rate cuts, and the temporary sell-off of some banks’ stocks in early August highlighted some of the risks ahead, particularly for a relatively large tail of weaker institutions facing challenges related to their business models (Figure ES.8).10. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 17
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Chapter 3 shows that although adoption of AI in trading and investment activ ities is still at a relatively early stage, it could accelerate in the coming years: For example, the share of applications related to AI and machine learning in patent filings in asset management has risen impressively in recent years (Figure ES.9).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 17- Captured
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Chapter 3 shows that although adoption of AI in trading and investment activ ities is still at a relatively early stage, it could accelerate in the coming years: For example, the share of applications related to AI and machine learning in patent filings in asset management has risen impressively in recent years (Figure ES.9).11. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 21
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Market turmoil in early August, though short-lived, served as a reminder of how quickly volatility can catch up to uncertainty, force the unwinding of leveraged trades, and trigger feedback loops between asset prices and deleveraging.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 21- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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Market turmoil in early August, though short-lived, served as a reminder of how quickly volatility can catch up to uncertainty, force the unwinding of leveraged trades, and trigger feedback loops between asset prices and deleveraging.12. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 21
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The banking system has remained sound, although a weak tail of banks is still confronting exposures to troubled sectors like commercial real estate and ongoing business model challenges.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 21- Captured
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The banking system has remained sound, although a weak tail of banks is still confronting exposures to troubled sectors like commercial real estate and ongoing business model challenges.13. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 23
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Information conveyed by these markets may deviate periodically from other measures of policy rate expectations, such as those obtained from surveys of professional forecasters.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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Information conveyed by these markets may deviate periodically from other measures of policy rate expectations, such as those obtained from surveys of professional forecasters.14. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 24
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In panel 2, distributions are constructed, using kernel densities, from survey forecast responses submitted by economists and market participants to Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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In panel 2, distributions are constructed, using kernel densities, from survey forecast responses submitted by economists and market participants to Bloomberg Finance L.P.15. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 26
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In panel 4, the average reaction of the US 10-year government bond yield is calculated three months into a steepening episode since 2000.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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In panel 4, the average reaction of the US 10-year government bond yield is calculated three months into a steepening episode since 2000.16. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 27
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Panel 2 shows net duration supply, expressed in terms of 10-year equivalent bonds net of domestic central bank purchases.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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Panel 2 shows net duration supply, expressed in terms of 10-year equivalent bonds net of domestic central bank purchases.17. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 27
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ECB = European Central Bank; EGB = European government bond; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; QT = quantitative tightening.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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ECB = European Central Bank; EGB = European government bond; GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; QT = quantitative tightening.18. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 29
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In panel 2, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, is the benchmark measure of US stock market volatility, based on S&P 500 options.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 29- Captured
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In panel 2, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, is the benchmark measure of US stock market volatility, based on S&P 500 options.19. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 31
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“Large to small cap volatility” is the implied volatility for the S&P 500 divided by the implied volatility for the Russell 2000.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 31- Captured
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“Large to small cap volatility” is the implied volatility for the S&P 500 divided by the implied volatility for the Russell 2000.20. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 32
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Thailand is excluded from panel 1 because the sovereign has no outstanding hard-currency dollar-denominated debt.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 32- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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Thailand is excluded from panel 1 because the sovereign has no outstanding hard-currency dollar-denominated debt.21. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 33
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“Aggregate” represents the sum of these contributions, and its values are similar, but not identical, to Financial Conditions Index values shown in panel 1.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 33- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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“Aggregate” represents the sum of these contributions, and its values are similar, but not identical, to Financial Conditions Index values shown in panel 1.22. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 35
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Each country’s indicators are transformed into a normalized z-score based on 10 years of monthly observations.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 35- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Each country’s indicators are transformed into a normalized z-score based on 10 years of monthly observations.23. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 36
Narrow public claim
Panel 6 reports spillovers from changes in US term premiums to EM term premiums.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 36- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Panel 6 reports spillovers from changes in US term premiums to EM term premiums.24. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 38
Narrow public claim
“EM ex China” includes an unbalanced sample of 20 emerging markets.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 38- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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“EM ex China” includes an unbalanced sample of 20 emerging markets.25. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 39
Narrow public claim
Sample in panels 2 and 3 includes 16 major EM sovereigns with outstanding external debt denominated in US dollars, with eight in each category.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Sample in panels 2 and 3 includes 16 major EM sovereigns with outstanding external debt denominated in US dollars, with eight in each category.26. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 39
Narrow public claim
Panels 4 and 5 include a sample of 80 EM sovereigns that were continuously rated by at least one of three international rating agencies from December 2008 to August 2024.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Panels 4 and 5 include a sample of 80 EM sovereigns that were continuously rated by at least one of three international rating agencies from December 2008 to August 2024.27. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 41
Narrow public claim
A large proportion of debt maturing in coming months is trading close to or above 10 percent.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 41- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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A large proportion of debt maturing in coming months is trading close to or above 10 percent.28. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 42
Narrow public claim
Data labels in panel 2 use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 42- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Data labels in panel 2 use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.29. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 44
Narrow public claim
In panel 3, the decomposition is based on 12-month-forward measures of valuation and earnings.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 44- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 3, the decomposition is based on 12-month-forward measures of valuation and earnings.30. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 46
Narrow public claim
For the model details, please see the October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report, Online Annex 1.1.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 46- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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For the model details, please see the October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report, Online Annex 1.1.31. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 46
Narrow public claim
Intuitively, this measure indicates how many standard deviations of monthly changes in spread (or “risk units”) it would take for the spreads to get back to fair value.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 46- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Intuitively, this measure indicates how many standard deviations of monthly changes in spread (or “risk units”) it would take for the spreads to get back to fair value.32. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 49
Narrow public claim
In panel 5, “pretightening trendline” is an average of values for 2019:Q1 and 2021:Q4 at $82.5 billion.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 49- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 5, “pretightening trendline” is an average of values for 2019:Q1 and 2021:Q4 at $82.5 billion.33. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 49
Narrow public claim
In panel 6, “scenario” shows the share of debt that bears an interest coverage ratio of below 1 in the scenario explained in note 37.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 49- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 6, “scenario” shows the share of debt that bears an interest coverage ratio of below 1 in the scenario explained in note 37.34. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 51
Narrow public claim
4) and overvalued property markets, as well as those in which substantial easing in monetary policy is less likely.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 51- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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4) and overvalued property markets, as well as those in which substantial easing in monetary policy is less likely.35. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 53
Narrow public claim
In panel 3, the volume of cross-border acquisitions by property type is based on trailing four-quarter data.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 53- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 3, the volume of cross-border acquisitions by property type is based on trailing four-quarter data.36. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 53
Narrow public claim
In panel 6, probability densities are estimated for the distributions of three-year-ahead (cumulative) CRE price growth (in real terms), following the approach in Deghi, Mok, and Tsuruga (2021).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 53- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 6, probability densities are estimated for the distributions of three-year-ahead (cumulative) CRE price growth (in real terms), following the approach in Deghi, Mok, and Tsuruga (2021).37. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 55
Narrow public claim
In panel 2, high concentrations of CRE offices are defined as ratios of exposures to CRE offices to Tier 1 capital greater than 50 percent.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 55- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 2, high concentrations of CRE offices are defined as ratios of exposures to CRE offices to Tier 1 capital greater than 50 percent.38. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 58
Narrow public claim
In panel 1, ETF and MF holdings of US-domiciled funds are compared with the market value of the Bloomberg Barclays US aggregate bond index.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 58- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panel 1, ETF and MF holdings of US-domiciled funds are compared with the market value of the Bloomberg Barclays US aggregate bond index.39. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 58
Narrow public claim
In panels 2–5, the analysis is based on Lipper data covering US-domiciled bond funds.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 58- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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In panels 2–5, the analysis is based on Lipper data covering US-domiciled bond funds.40. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 60
Narrow public claim
The calculations for illiquid investments in panel 4 do not include the same items in the European Union and the United States and therefore are not directly comparable.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 60- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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The calculations for illiquid investments in panel 4 do not include the same items in the European Union and the United States and therefore are not directly comparable.41. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 64
Narrow public claim
The index scale ranges from 0 to 100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that credit risk is worsening.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 64- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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The index scale ranges from 0 to 100, with levels above 50 indicating a higher proportion of respondents estimating that credit risk is worsening.42. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 70
Narrow public claim
Local currency government bond holdings by pension and insurance funds are assessed from December 2021 to December 2023.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 70- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Local currency government bond holdings by pension and insurance funds are assessed from December 2021 to December 2023.43. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 70
Narrow public claim
Term premiums are on the 10-year yield and follow the methodology in Adrian, Crump, and Moench (2013).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 70- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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Term premiums are on the 10-year yield and follow the methodology in Adrian, Crump, and Moench (2013).44. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 75
Narrow public claim
High macroeconomic uncertainty can profoundly affect macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside market tail risks, delaying consumption and investment decisions, and reducing credit supply.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
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PDF page 75- Captured
- 2026-08-17
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966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
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High macroeconomic uncertainty can profoundly affect macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside market tail risks, delaying consumption and investment decisions, and reducing credit supply.45. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 75
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As financial indicators may not fully capture macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in economies with less-developed financial systems, there is merit in considering measures of macroeconomic uncertainty in systemic risk assessment frameworks such as the growth-at-risk framework.
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As financial indicators may not fully capture macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in economies with less-developed financial systems, there is merit in considering measures of macroeconomic uncertainty in systemic risk assessment frameworks such as the growth-at-risk framework.46. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 80
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Panel 2 depicts standardized measures of uncertainty for the United States.
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PDF page 80- Captured
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Panel 2 depicts standardized measures of uncertainty for the United States.47. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 81
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Aït-Sahalia and others (2024) show that macroeconomic uncertainty and stock return volatility could be disconnected.
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PDF page 81- Captured
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Aït-Sahalia and others (2024) show that macroeconomic uncertainty and stock return volatility could be disconnected.48. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 82
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Panel 2 shows the impact of a one-standard-deviation increase in the real economic uncertainty index used in the chapter, based on Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2021), on the 10th percentile of the average future real GDP growth distribution at different time horizons.
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PDF page 82- Captured
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Panel 2 shows the impact of a one-standard-deviation increase in the real economic uncertainty index used in the chapter, based on Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2021), on the 10th percentile of the average future real GDP growth distribution at different time horizons.49. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 82
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Panel 3 depicts the effect of various measures of uncertainty on the full distribution of one-quarter-ahead real GDP growth.
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Panel 3 depicts the effect of various measures of uncertainty on the full distribution of one-quarter-ahead real GDP growth.50. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 83
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The comparator ML models include the same variables for results presented in green bars and additionally include the real economic uncertainty index for results presented in red bars.
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PDF page 83- Captured
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The comparator ML models include the same variables for results presented in green bars and additionally include the real economic uncertainty index for results presented in red bars.51. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 84
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Estimations are conducted using panel quantile regressions for the countries in the sample, depending on data availability.
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PDF page 84- Captured
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Estimations are conducted using panel quantile regressions for the countries in the sample, depending on data availability.52. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 86
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In panel 1, the measure of foreign uncertainty is calculated as a weighted average of the chapter’s real economic uncertainty index in a country’s trading partners, with weights computed as the sum of the ratios of bilateral exports and imports to domestic GDP.
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PDF page 86- Captured
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In panel 1, the measure of foreign uncertainty is calculated as a weighted average of the chapter’s real economic uncertainty index in a country’s trading partners, with weights computed as the sum of the ratios of bilateral exports and imports to domestic GDP.53. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 90
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The underlying regressions include relevant controls for the sovereign bond market at the country and global levels, following Gilchrist and others (2022), as well as the lagged dependent variable.
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PDF page 90- Captured
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The underlying regressions include relevant controls for the sovereign bond market at the country and global levels, following Gilchrist and others (2022), as well as the lagged dependent variable.54. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 90
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Low and high levels of government debt service and banks’ sovereign exposure are defined as the 25th percentile (green bars) and the 75th percentile (red bars) of the respective distributions.
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PDF page 90- Captured
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Low and high levels of government debt service and banks’ sovereign exposure are defined as the 25th percentile (green bars) and the 75th percentile (red bars) of the respective distributions.55. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 91
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Results are obtained from a panel quantile regression using country-level data for both advanced and emerging market economies.
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PDF page 91- Captured
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Results are obtained from a panel quantile regression using country-level data for both advanced and emerging market economies.56. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 91
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Panel 3 shows the effect of a one-standard-deviation increase in four types of measures of uncertainty on the 10th percentile of the distribution of one-year-ahead real credit growth interacted with banks’ exposure to sovereign debt (defined as the share of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt in an economy as a share of banks’ total assets).
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PDF page 91- Captured
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Panel 3 shows the effect of a one-standard-deviation increase in four types of measures of uncertainty on the 10th percentile of the distribution of one-year-ahead real credit growth interacted with banks’ exposure to sovereign debt (defined as the share of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt in an economy as a share of banks’ total assets).57. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 97
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New evidence from labor markets and patent filings suggests that the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in capital markets is likely to increase significantly in the near future, and analyses of pricing patterns and trading dynamics already show changes in some markets consistent with the adoption of these new technologies.
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PDF page 97- Captured
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New evidence from labor markets and patent filings suggests that the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in capital markets is likely to increase significantly in the near future, and analyses of pricing patterns and trading dynamics already show changes in some markets consistent with the adoption of these new technologies.58. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 97
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In addition, AI could cause large changes in market structure through the greater and more powerful use of algorithmic trading and novel trading and investment strategies, which in turn may increase turnover and asset correlations and drive prices to reflect new information at an ever-increasing speed.
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PDF page 97- Captured
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In addition, AI could cause large changes in market structure through the greater and more powerful use of algorithmic trading and novel trading and investment strategies, which in turn may increase turnover and asset correlations and drive prices to reflect new information at an ever-increasing speed.59. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 102
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Details on the market intelligence outreach in panel 2 can be found in Box 3.1.
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PDF page 102- Captured
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Details on the market intelligence outreach in panel 2 can be found in Box 3.1.60. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 104
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In panel 2, asset management practices also include asset allocation and portfolio management applications.
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In panel 2, asset management practices also include asset allocation and portfolio management applications.61. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 108
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In panel 2, the idiosyncratic jumps frequencies are computed per stock-specific deciles of the daily bid-ask spreads.
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In panel 2, the idiosyncratic jumps frequencies are computed per stock-specific deciles of the daily bid-ask spreads.62. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 110
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In panel 3, events have been included if the index price change surpassed 0.2 percent at the 15-minute mark.
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PDF page 110- Captured
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In panel 3, events have been included if the index price change surpassed 0.2 percent at the 15-minute mark.63. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 110
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The periods before and after LLMs are separated by the publication of Vaswani and others (2017), which introduced the attention model and transformer architecture.
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The periods before and after LLMs are separated by the publication of Vaswani and others (2017), which introduced the attention model and transformer architecture.64. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 111
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Panel 2 shows that industry market participants expect regulatory authorities to intervene to limit the risks of generative AI.
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Panel 2 shows that industry market participants expect regulatory authorities to intervene to limit the risks of generative AI.65. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 111
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Other industry types in panel 2 include AI vendors, academia, and rating agencies.
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Other industry types in panel 2 include AI vendors, academia, and rating agencies.66. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 119
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In panel 2, the IMF AI Preparedness Index incorporates four macro-structural indicators that are relevant for AI adoption: digital infrastructure, innovation and economic integration, human capital and labor market policies, and regulation and ethics.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 119- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom037_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
In panel 2, the IMF AI Preparedness Index incorporates four macro-structural indicators that are relevant for AI adoption: digital infrastructure, innovation and economic integration, human capital and labor market policies, and regulation and ethics.67. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 121
Narrow public claim
FinTech28 Technology-enabled innovation in financial services that could result in new business models, applications, processes, or products with an associated material effect on the provision of financial services.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 121- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom037_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
FinTech28 Technology-enabled innovation in financial services that could result in new business models, applications, processes, or products with an associated material effect on the provision of financial services.68. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 121
Narrow public claim
Foundation models29 An umbrella term referring to a diversity of models that are usually trained by applying deep learning to massive quantities of data, such as text and images.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 121- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom037_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Foundation models29 An umbrella term referring to a diversity of models that are usually trained by applying deep learning to massive quantities of data, such as text and images.69. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 122
Narrow public claim
Market-making31 The provision of liquidity for clients in financial instruments, whereby a trader sets firm bid-offer quotes and thereby provides liquidity for a specific product or a particular product class.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 122- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom037_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Market-making31 The provision of liquidity for clients in financial instruments, whereby a trader sets firm bid-offer quotes and thereby provides liquidity for a specific product or a particular product class.70. IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course · PDF page 122
Narrow public claim
Such advisors may be standalone firms and platforms or can be in-house applications of incumbent financial institutions.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-08-17, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024: Steadying the Course
- Section locator
PDF page 122- Captured
- 2026-08-17
- Source SHA-256
966a2932597ef9f6506a7ce225fa45eb047f5d24035189bc636ca4a9eb1edde4- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom037_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Such advisors may be standalone firms and platforms or can be in-house applications of incumbent financial institutions.