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Oceans
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1. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 3
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Weyer (Germany) This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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- 2026-09-05
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Weyer (Germany) This Summary for Policymakers should be cited as: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers.
2. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 3
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In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O.
3. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 4
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Summary for Policymakers Introduction This Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere1 in a Changing Climate (SROCC) was prepared following an IPCC Panel decision in 2016 to prepare three Special Reports during the Sixth Assessment Cycle2.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 4- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Summary for Policymakers Introduction This Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere1 in a Changing Climate (SROCC) was prepared following an IPCC Panel decision in 2016 to prepare three Special Reports during the Sixth Assessment Cycle2.
4. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 4
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The SROCC follows the other two Special Reports on Global Warming of 1.5ºC (SR1.5) and on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)5 and the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 4- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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The SROCC follows the other two Special Reports on Global Warming of 1.5ºC (SR1.5) and on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)5 and the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
5. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 4
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The decision to prepare a Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and the Cryosphere was made at the Forty-Third Session of the IPCC in Nairobi, Kenya, 11–13 April 2016.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 4- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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The decision to prepare a Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and the Cryosphere was made at the Forty-Third Session of the IPCC in Nairobi, Kenya, 11–13 April 2016.
6. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 4
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The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 4- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%.
7. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 5
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Around 10% of Earth’s land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 5- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Around 10% of Earth’s land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets.
8. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 5
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The low-lying coastal zone8 is currently home to around 680 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), projected to reach more than one billion by 2050.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 5- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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The low-lying coastal zone8 is currently home to around 680 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), projected to reach more than one billion by 2050.
9. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 6
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Arctic sea ice has thinned, concurrent with a transition to younger ice: between 1979 and 2018, the areal proportion of multi-year ice at least five years old has declined by approximately 90% (very high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 6- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Arctic sea ice has thinned, concurrent with a transition to younger ice: between 1979 and 2018, the areal proportion of multi-year ice at least five years old has declined by approximately 90% (very high confidence).
10. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 6
Narrow public claim
Antarctic sea ice extent overall has had no statistically significant trend (1979–2018) due to contrasting regional signals and large interannual variability (high confidence). {3.2.1, 6.3.1, Box 3.1, Box 3.2, SPM A.1.2, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2} Including peripheral glaciers.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 6- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Antarctic sea ice extent overall has had no statistically significant trend (1979–2018) due to contrasting regional signals and large interannual variability (high confidence). {3.2.1, 6.3.1, Box 3.1, Box 3.2, SPM A.1.2, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2} Including peripheral glaciers.
11. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 7
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Changes in some variables have occurred since the pre-industrial period.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 7- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Changes in some variables have occurred since the pre-industrial period.
12. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
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Summary for Policymakers Figure SPM.1 (continued): Changes are shown for: (a) Global mean surface air temperature change with likely range. {Box SPM.1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1} Ocean-related changes with very likely ranges for (b) Global mean sea surface temperature change {Box 5.1, 5.2.2}; (c) Change factor in surface ocean marine heatwave days {6.4.1}; (d) Global ocean heat content change (0–2000 m depth).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Summary for Policymakers Figure SPM.1 (continued): Changes are shown for: (a) Global mean surface air temperature change with likely range. {Box SPM.1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1} Ocean-related changes with very likely ranges for (b) Global mean sea surface temperature change {Box 5.1, 5.2.2}; (c) Change factor in surface ocean marine heatwave days {6.4.1}; (d) Global ocean heat content change (0–2000 m depth).
13. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
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RCPs provide only one set of many possible scenarios that would lead to different levels of global warming. {Annex I: Glossary} This report uses mainly RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in its assessment, reflecting the available literature.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
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- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
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RCPs provide only one set of many possible scenarios that would lead to different levels of global warming. {Annex I: Glossary} This report uses mainly RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in its assessment, reflecting the available literature.
14. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
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By contrast, RCP8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario in the absence of policies to combat climate change, leading to continued and sustained growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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By contrast, RCP8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario in the absence of policies to combat climate change, leading to continued and sustained growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
15. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 8
Narrow public claim
The underlying chapters also reference other scenarios, including RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 that have intermediate levels of greenhouse gas emissions and result in intermediate levels of warming. {Annex I: Glossary, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1} Table SPM.1 provides estimates of total warming since the pre-industrial period under four different RCPs for key assessment intervals used in SROCC.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 8- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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The underlying chapters also reference other scenarios, including RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 that have intermediate levels of greenhouse gas emissions and result in intermediate levels of warming. {Annex I: Glossary, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1} Table SPM.1 provides estimates of total warming since the pre-industrial period under four different RCPs for key assessment intervals used in SROCC.
16. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 9
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Summary for Policymakers A.2 It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 9- Captured
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Summary for Policymakers A.2 It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence).
17. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 9
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Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity (very high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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PDF page 9- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity (very high confidence).
18. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 9
Narrow public claim
Open ocean surface pH has declined by a very likely range of 0.017–0.027 pH units per decade since the late 1980s20, with the decline in surface ocean pH very likely to have already emerged from background natural variability for more than 95% of the ocean surface area. {3.2.1, 5.2.2, Box 5.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2} ZJ is Zettajoule and is equal to 1021 Joules.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 9- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Open ocean surface pH has declined by a very likely range of 0.017–0.027 pH units per decade since the late 1980s20, with the decline in surface ocean pH very likely to have already emerged from background natural variability for more than 95% of the ocean surface area. {3.2.1, 5.2.2, Box 5.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2} ZJ is Zettajoule and is equal to 1021 Joules.
19. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 10
Narrow public claim
A.2.7 Observations, both in situ (2004–2017) and based on sea surface temperature reconstructions, indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)21 has weakened relative to 1850–1900 (medium confidence).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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A.2.7 Observations, both in situ (2004–2017) and based on sea surface temperature reconstructions, indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)21 has weakened relative to 1850–1900 (medium confidence).
20. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 10
Narrow public claim
(high confidence) {4.2.2, 5.2.2, 6.2.2, 6.3.1, 6.8.2, Figure SPM.2} The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans (Annex I: Glossary).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
- Section locator
PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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(high confidence) {4.2.2, 5.2.2, 6.2.2, 6.3.1, 6.8.2, Figure SPM.2} The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans (Annex I: Glossary).
21. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
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A.3.6 Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed precipitation (medium confidence), winds (low confidence), and extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated with some tropical cyclones, which has increased intensity of multiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts (high confidence).
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A.3.6 Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed precipitation (medium confidence), winds (low confidence), and extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated with some tropical cyclones, which has increased intensity of multiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts (high confidence).
22. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
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In polar and mountain regions, many species have altered seasonal activities especially in late winter and spring (high confidence). {2.3.3, Box 3.4} A.4.2 Increased wildfire and abrupt permafrost thaw, as well as changes in Arctic and mountain hydrology have altered frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbances (high confidence).
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In polar and mountain regions, many species have altered seasonal activities especially in late winter and spring (high confidence). {2.3.3, Box 3.4} A.4.2 Increased wildfire and abrupt permafrost thaw, as well as changes in Arctic and mountain hydrology have altered frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbances (high confidence).
23. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 11
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This has included positive and negative impacts on vegetation and wildlife such as reindeer and salmon (high confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.3} A.4.3 Across tundra, satellite observations show an overall greening, often indicative of increased plant productivity (high confidence).
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This has included positive and negative impacts on vegetation and wildlife such as reindeer and salmon (high confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.3} A.4.3 Across tundra, satellite observations show an overall greening, often indicative of increased plant productivity (high confidence).
24. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
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Summary for Policymakers A.5 Since about 1950 many marine species across various groups have undergone shifts in geographical range and seasonal activities in response to ocean warming, sea ice change and biogeochemical changes, such as oxygen loss, to their habitats (high confidence).
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Summary for Policymakers A.5 Since about 1950 many marine species across various groups have undergone shifts in geographical range and seasonal activities in response to ocean warming, sea ice change and biogeochemical changes, such as oxygen loss, to their habitats (high confidence).
25. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 12
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Cascading effects of multiple climate-related drivers on polar zooplankton have affected food web structure and function, biodiversity as well as fisheries (high confidence). {3.2.3, 3.2.4, Box 3.4, 5.2.3, Figure SPM.2} A.5.3 Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems.
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Cascading effects of multiple climate-related drivers on polar zooplankton have affected food web structure and function, biodiversity as well as fisheries (high confidence). {3.2.3, 3.2.4, Box 3.4, 5.2.3, Figure SPM.2} A.5.3 Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems.
26. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 13
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Vegetated coastal ecosystems are important carbon stores; their loss is responsible for the current release of 0.04–1.46 GtC yr–1 (medium confidence).
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Vegetated coastal ecosystems are important carbon stores; their loss is responsible for the current release of 0.04–1.46 GtC yr–1 (medium confidence).
27. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 13
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In response to warming, distribution ranges of seagrass meadows and kelp forests are expanding at high latitudes and contracting at low latitudes since the late 1970s (high confidence), and in some areas episodic losses occur following heatwaves (medium confidence).
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In response to warming, distribution ranges of seagrass meadows and kelp forests are expanding at high latitudes and contracting at low latitudes since the late 1970s (high confidence), and in some areas episodic losses occur following heatwaves (medium confidence).
28. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 13
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Marine heatwaves have already resulted in large-scale coral bleaching events at increasing frequency (very high confidence) causing worldwide reef degradation since 1997, and recovery is slow (more than 15 years) if it occurs (high confidence).
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Marine heatwaves have already resulted in large-scale coral bleaching events at increasing frequency (very high confidence) causing worldwide reef degradation since 1997, and recovery is slow (more than 15 years) if it occurs (high confidence).
29. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
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The physical changes in the ocean are defined as: Temperature change in 0–700 m layer of the ocean except for Southern Ocean (0–2000 m) and Arctic Ocean (upper mixed layer and major inflowing branches); Oxygen in the 0–1200 m layer or oxygen minimum layer; Ocean pH as surface pH (decreasing pH corresponds to increasing ocean acidification).
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The physical changes in the ocean are defined as: Temperature change in 0–700 m layer of the ocean except for Southern Ocean (0–2000 m) and Arctic Ocean (upper mixed layer and major inflowing branches); Oxygen in the 0–1200 m layer or oxygen minimum layer; Ocean pH as surface pH (decreasing pH corresponds to increasing ocean acidification).
30. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 14
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The ‘upper water column’ category refers to epipelagic zone for all ocean regions except Polar Regions, where the impacts on some pelagic organisms in open water deeper than the upper 200 m were included.
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The ‘upper water column’ category refers to epipelagic zone for all ocean regions except Polar Regions, where the impacts on some pelagic organisms in open water deeper than the upper 200 m were included.
31. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 15
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Health-related adaptation efforts in the Arctic range from local to international in scale, and successes have been underpinned by Indigenous knowledge (high confidence). {1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 3.4.3} A.7.3 Arctic residents, especially Indigenous peoples, have adjusted the timing of activities to respond to changes in seasonality and safety of land, ice, and snow travel conditions.
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Health-related adaptation efforts in the Arctic range from local to international in scale, and successes have been underpinned by Indigenous knowledge (high confidence). {1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 3.4.3} A.7.3 Arctic residents, especially Indigenous peoples, have adjusted the timing of activities to respond to changes in seasonality and safety of land, ice, and snow travel conditions.
32. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 15
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Some disasters have been linked to changes in the cryosphere, for example in the Andes, high mountain Asia, Caucasus and European Alps (medium confidence). {2.3.2, Figure SPM.2} A.7.6 Changes in snow and glaciers have changed the amount and seasonality of runoff and water resources in snow dominated and glacier-fed river basins (very high confidence).
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Some disasters have been linked to changes in the cryosphere, for example in the Andes, high mountain Asia, Caucasus and European Alps (medium confidence). {2.3.2, Figure SPM.2} A.7.6 Changes in snow and glaciers have changed the amount and seasonality of runoff and water resources in snow dominated and glacier-fed river basins (very high confidence).
33. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 16
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In some places, artificial snowmaking has reduced negative impacts on ski tourism (medium confidence). {2.3.5, 2.3.6, Figure SPM.2} A.8 Changes in the ocean have impacted marine ecosystems and ecosystem services with regionally diverse outcomes, challenging their governance (high confidence).
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In some places, artificial snowmaking has reduced negative impacts on ski tourism (medium confidence). {2.3.5, 2.3.6, Figure SPM.2} A.8 Changes in the ocean have impacted marine ecosystems and ecosystem services with regionally diverse outcomes, challenging their governance (high confidence).
34. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 16
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The impacts on ecosystem services have negative consequences for health and well-being (medium confidence), and for Indigenous peoples and local communities dependent on fisheries (high confidence). {1.1, 1.5, 3.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, Figure SPM.2} A.8.1 Warming-induced changes in the spatial distribution and abundance of some fish and shellfish stocks have had positive and negative impacts on catches, economic benefits, livelihoods, and local culture (high confidence).
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The impacts on ecosystem services have negative consequences for health and well-being (medium confidence), and for Indigenous peoples and local communities dependent on fisheries (high confidence). {1.1, 1.5, 3.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, Figure SPM.2} A.8.1 Warming-induced changes in the spatial distribution and abundance of some fish and shellfish stocks have had positive and negative impacts on catches, economic benefits, livelihoods, and local culture (high confidence).
35. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 17
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Projected Changes and Risks Projected Physical Changes25 B.1 Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence).
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Projected Changes and Risks Projected Physical Changes25 B.1 Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence).
36. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 17
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The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond (high confidence).
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The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond (high confidence).
37. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 17
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The rates and magnitudes of these cryospheric changes are projected to increase further in the second half of the 21st century in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (high confidence).
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The rates and magnitudes of these cryospheric changes are projected to increase further in the second half of the 21st century in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (high confidence).
38. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 18
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Summary for Policymakers B.1.4 Widespread permafrost thaw is projected for this century (very high confidence) and beyond.
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Summary for Policymakers B.1.4 Widespread permafrost thaw is projected for this century (very high confidence) and beyond.
39. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 18
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By 2100, projected near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 ± 16% (likely range) for RCP2.6 and 69 ± 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5.
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By 2100, projected near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 ± 16% (likely range) for RCP2.6 and 69 ± 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5.
40. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 19
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Summary for Policymakers B.2.2 By 2081–2100 under RCP8.5, ocean oxygen content (medium confidence), upper ocean nitrate content (medium confidence), net primary production (low confidence) and carbon export (medium confidence) are projected to decline globally by very likely ranges of 3–4%, 9–14%, 4–11% and 9–16% respectively, relative to 2006–2015.
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- IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers
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- 2026-09-05
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Summary for Policymakers B.2.2 By 2081–2100 under RCP8.5, ocean oxygen content (medium confidence), upper ocean nitrate content (medium confidence), net primary production (low confidence) and carbon export (medium confidence) are projected to decline globally by very likely ranges of 3–4%, 9–14%, 4–11% and 9–16% respectively, relative to 2006–2015.
41. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 19
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Open ocean surface pH is projected to decrease by around 0.3 pH units by 2081–2100, relative to 2006–2015, under RCP8.5 (virtually certain).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- 2026-09-05
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Open ocean surface pH is projected to decrease by around 0.3 pH units by 2081–2100, relative to 2006–2015, under RCP8.5 (virtually certain).
42. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 20
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Extreme sea level events that are historically rare (once per century in the recent past) are projected to occur frequently (at least once per year) at many locations by 2050 in all RCP scenarios, especially in tropical regions (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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Extreme sea level events that are historically rare (once per century in the recent past) are projected to occur frequently (at least once per year) at many locations by 2050 in all RCP scenarios, especially in tropical regions (high confidence).
43. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 20
Narrow public claim
In coming centuries under RCP8.5, sea level rise is projected to exceed rates of several centimetres per year resulting in multi-metre rise (medium confidence), while for RCP2.6 sea level rise is projected to be limited to around 1 m in 2300 (low confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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In coming centuries under RCP8.5, sea level rise is projected to exceed rates of several centimetres per year resulting in multi-metre rise (medium confidence), while for RCP2.6 sea level rise is projected to be limited to around 1 m in 2300 (low confidence).
44. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 21
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There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (medium confidence).
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- 2026-09-05
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There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (medium confidence).
45. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 21
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The persistence of alpine species and sustaining ecosystem services depends on appropriate conservation and adaptation measures (high confidence). {2.3.3} B.4.2 On Arctic land, a loss of globally unique biodiversity is projected as limited refugia exist for some High-Arctic species and hence they are outcompeted by more temperate species (medium confidence).
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The persistence of alpine species and sustaining ecosystem services depends on appropriate conservation and adaptation measures (high confidence). {2.3.3} B.4.2 On Arctic land, a loss of globally unique biodiversity is projected as limited refugia exist for some High-Arctic species and hence they are outcompeted by more temperate species (medium confidence).
46. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
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The global-scale biomass of marine animals across the foodweb is projected to decrease by 15.0 ± 5.9% (very likely range) and the maximum catch potential of fisheries by 20.5–24.1% by the end of the 21st century relative to 1986–2005 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 22- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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The global-scale biomass of marine animals across the foodweb is projected to decrease by 15.0 ± 5.9% (very likely range) and the maximum catch potential of fisheries by 20.5–24.1% by the end of the 21st century relative to 1986–2005 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence).
47. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 22
Narrow public claim
These changes are projected to be very likely three to four times larger under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. {3.2.3, 3.3.3, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.4.1, Figure SPM.3} B.5.2 Under enhanced stratification reduced nutrient supply is projected to cause tropical ocean net primary production to decline by 7–16% (very likely range) for RCP8.5 by 2081–2100 (medium confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 22- Captured
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These changes are projected to be very likely three to four times larger under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. {3.2.3, 3.3.3, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.4.1, Figure SPM.3} B.5.2 Under enhanced stratification reduced nutrient supply is projected to cause tropical ocean net primary production to decline by 7–16% (very likely range) for RCP8.5 by 2081–2100 (medium confidence).
48. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
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Since assessments of risks and impacts are based on global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the corresponding SST levels are shown29.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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Since assessments of risks and impacts are based on global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the corresponding SST levels are shown29.
49. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 24
Narrow public claim
The assessment of risk transitions is described in Chapter Sections 5.2, 5.3, 5.2.5 and 5.3.7 and Supplementary Materials SM5.3, Table SM5.6, Table SM5.8 and other parts of the underlying report.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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The assessment of risk transitions is described in Chapter Sections 5.2, 5.3, 5.2.5 and 5.3.7 and Supplementary Materials SM5.3, Table SM5.6, Table SM5.8 and other parts of the underlying report.
50. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 25
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Summary for Policymakers B.6.3 Ocean warming, sea level rise and tidal changes are projected to expand salinization and hypoxia in estuaries (high confidence) with high risks for some biota leading to migration, reduced survival, and local extinction under high emission scenarios (medium confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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Summary for Policymakers B.6.3 Ocean warming, sea level rise and tidal changes are projected to expand salinization and hypoxia in estuaries (high confidence) with high risks for some biota leading to migration, reduced survival, and local extinction under high emission scenarios (medium confidence).
51. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 25
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Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost thaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (medium confidence). {2.3.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.3} B.7.3 High mountain tourism, recreation and cultural assets are projected to be negatively affected by future cryospheric changes (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- 2026-09-05
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Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost thaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (medium confidence). {2.3.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.3} B.7.3 High mountain tourism, recreation and cultural assets are projected to be negatively affected by future cryospheric changes (high confidence).
52. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 26
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Summary for Policymakers B.8 Future shifts in fish distribution and decreases in their abundance and fisheries catch potential due to climate change are projected to affect income, livelihoods, and food security of marine resource-dependent communities (medium confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 26- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Summary for Policymakers B.8 Future shifts in fish distribution and decreases in their abundance and fisheries catch potential due to climate change are projected to affect income, livelihoods, and food security of marine resource-dependent communities (medium confidence).
53. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 26
Narrow public claim
B.8.1 Projected geographical shifts and decreases of global marine animal biomass and fish catch potential are more pronounced under RCP8.5 relative to RCP2.6 elevating the risk for income and livelihoods of dependent human communities, particularly in areas that are economically vulnerable (medium confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 26- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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B.8.1 Projected geographical shifts and decreases of global marine animal biomass and fish catch potential are more pronounced under RCP8.5 relative to RCP2.6 elevating the risk for income and livelihoods of dependent human communities, particularly in areas that are economically vulnerable (medium confidence).
54. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 27
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In Arctic human communities without rapid land uplift, and in urban atoll islands, risks are projected to be moderate to high even under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) (medium confidence), including reaching adaptation limits (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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In Arctic human communities without rapid land uplift, and in urban atoll islands, risks are projected to be moderate to high even under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) (medium confidence), including reaching adaptation limits (high confidence).
55. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 27
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At global scale, coastal protection can reduce flood risk by 2–3 orders of magnitude during the 21st century, but depends on investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of US$ per year (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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At global scale, coastal protection can reduce flood risk by 2–3 orders of magnitude during the 21st century, but depends on investments on the order of tens to several hundreds of billions of US$ per year (high confidence).
56. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 28
Narrow public claim
(b) The year in which HCEs are expected to recur once per year on average under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, at the 439 individual coastal locations where the observational record is sufficient.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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(b) The year in which HCEs are expected to recur once per year on average under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, at the 439 individual coastal locations where the observational record is sufficient.
57. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 28
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White circles (33% of locations under RCP2.6 and 10% under RCP8.5) indicate that HCEs are not expected to recur once per year before 2100.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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White circles (33% of locations under RCP2.6 and 10% under RCP8.5) indicate that HCEs are not expected to recur once per year before 2100.
58. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 29
Narrow public claim
People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond (high confidence). {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.4, 3.2.4, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9} C.1.1 The temporal scales of climate change impacts in ocean and cryosphere and their societal consequences operate on time horizons which are longer than those of governance arrangements (e.g., planning cycles, public and corporate decision making cycles, and financial instruments).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 29- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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People with the highest exposure and vulnerability are often those with lowest capacity to respond (high confidence). {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 2–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.4, 3.2.4, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, 6.9} C.1.1 The temporal scales of climate change impacts in ocean and cryosphere and their societal consequences operate on time horizons which are longer than those of governance arrangements (e.g., planning cycles, public and corporate decision making cycles, and financial instruments).
59. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 29
Narrow public claim
The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks (high confidence).
60. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 30
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Integrated water management (medium confidence) and ecosystem-based adaptation (high confidence) approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits.
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PDF page 30- Captured
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Integrated water management (medium confidence) and ecosystem-based adaptation (high confidence) approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits.
61. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 30
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Geographic barriers, ecosystem degradation, habitat fragmentation and barriers to regional cooperation limit the potential for such networks to support future species range shifts in marine, high mountain and polar land regions (high confidence). {2.3.3, 3.2.3, 3.3.2, 3.5.4, 5.5.2, Box 3.4} C.2.2 Terrestrial and marine habitat restoration, and ecosystem management tools such as assisted species relocation and coral gardening, can be locally effective in enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation (high confidence).
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PDF page 30- Captured
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Geographic barriers, ecosystem degradation, habitat fragmentation and barriers to regional cooperation limit the potential for such networks to support future species range shifts in marine, high mountain and polar land regions (high confidence). {2.3.3, 3.2.3, 3.3.2, 3.5.4, 5.5.2, Box 3.4} C.2.2 Terrestrial and marine habitat restoration, and ecosystem management tools such as assisted species relocation and coral gardening, can be locally effective in enhancing ecosystem-based adaptation (high confidence).
62. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 31
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Summary for Policymakers C.2.6 Integrated water management approaches across multiple scales can be effective at addressing impacts and leveraging opportunities from cryosphere changes in high mountain areas.
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PDF page 31- Captured
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Summary for Policymakers C.2.6 Integrated water management approaches across multiple scales can be effective at addressing impacts and leveraging opportunities from cryosphere changes in high mountain areas.
63. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 31
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Where space is limited, and the value of exposed assets is high (e.g., in cities), hard protection (e.g., dikes) is likely to be a cost-efficient response option during the 21st century taking into account the specifics of the context (high confidence), but resource-limited areas may not be able to afford such investments.
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PDF page 31- Captured
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Where space is limited, and the value of exposed assets is high (e.g., in cities), hard protection (e.g., dikes) is likely to be a cost-efficient response option during the 21st century taking into account the specifics of the context (high confidence), but resource-limited areas may not be able to afford such investments.
64. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 32
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The illustrative geographies are based on a limited number of case studies well covered by the peer reviewed literature.
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PDF page 32- Captured
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The illustrative geographies are based on a limited number of case studies well covered by the peer reviewed literature.
65. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 32
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Sea level rise scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are not considered in this risk assessment because the literature underpinning this assessment is only available for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
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PDF page 32- Captured
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Sea level rise scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are not considered in this risk assessment because the literature underpinning this assessment is only available for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
66. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 33
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Whether a response is applicable depends on geography and context.
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PDF page 33- Captured
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Whether a response is applicable depends on geography and context.
67. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 34
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(a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme sea levels under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and under two response scenarios.
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PDF page 34- Captured
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(a) shows the combined risk of coastal flooding, erosion and salinization for illustrative geographies in 2100, due to changing mean and extreme sea levels under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and under two response scenarios.
68. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 34
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C.4.2 Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise (high confidence).
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PDF page 34- Captured
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C.4.2 Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise (high confidence).
69. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 35
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Institutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit adaptation (high confidence).
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PDF page 35- Captured
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Institutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit adaptation (high confidence).
70. IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers · PDF page 35
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Specific activities include utilization of multiple knowledge systems and regional climate information into decision making, and the engagement of local communities, Indigenous peoples, and relevant stakeholders in adaptive governance arrangements and planning frameworks (medium confidence).
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PDF page 35- Captured
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74266354fea22282964442f03d74c14ed5e7131826e421dbb4987489f57e7058- Reproduction
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Specific activities include utilization of multiple knowledge systems and regional climate information into decision making, and the engagement of local communities, Indigenous peoples, and relevant stakeholders in adaptive governance arrangements and planning frameworks (medium confidence).