CLAIMBOUND / SOURCE-PUBLICATION EVIDENCE
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Every card identifies what it proves, what it does not prove, its exact quote, locator, source hash, and local rerun command.
1. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 10
Narrow public claim
To provide insight into the implications of these tradeoffs, potential implications for aggregate economic costs are provided as examples, when appropriate.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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To provide insight into the implications of these tradeoffs, potential implications for aggregate economic costs are provided as examples, when appropriate.
2. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 11
Narrow public claim
The majority of these scenarios were produced as part of multi-model comparisons.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The majority of these scenarios were produced as part of multi-model comparisons.
3. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 13
Narrow public claim
Other scenarios are depicted as a range with median emboldened; shading reflects interquartile range (darkest), 5th — 95th percentile range (lighter), and full range (lightest), excluding one indi cated outlier in panel a) Scenarios are filtered by model and study for each indicator to include only unique projections.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 13- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Other scenarios are depicted as a range with median emboldened; shading reflects interquartile range (darkest), 5th — 95th percentile range (lighter), and full range (lightest), excluding one indi cated outlier in panel a) Scenarios are filtered by model and study for each indicator to include only unique projections.
4. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 13
Narrow public claim
Model projections and historic data are normalized to in 2010.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 13- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
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Model projections and historic data are normalized to in 2010.
5. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 13
Narrow public claim
Energy and carbon intensity are measured with respect to total primary energy.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 13- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Energy and carbon intensity are measured with respect to total primary energy.
6. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 14
Narrow public claim
Declining carbon intensity could result from rapid improve ments in renewable technologies combined with rising fossil fuel prices.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Declining carbon intensity could result from rapid improve ments in renewable technologies combined with rising fossil fuel prices.
7. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 15
Narrow public claim
Scenarios are depicted as ranges with median emboldened; shading reflects interquartile range (darkest), 5th – 95th percentile range (lighter), and full extremes (lightest).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 15- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Scenarios are depicted as ranges with median emboldened; shading reflects interquartile range (darkest), 5th – 95th percentile range (lighter), and full extremes (lightest).
8. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 15
Narrow public claim
Absolute projections are subject to variation in reported base-year emissions arising from different data sources and calibration approaches (Chaturvedi et al., 2012).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 15- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Absolute projections are subject to variation in reported base-year emissions arising from different data sources and calibration approaches (Chaturvedi et al., 2012).
9. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 17
Narrow public claim
A discussion about different GHG metrics can be found in Sections 1.2.5 and 3.9.6.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 17- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
A discussion about different GHG metrics can be found in Sections 1.2.5 and 3.9.6.
10. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 21
Narrow public claim
CDR technologies have not been applied yet at large scale.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 21- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t01_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
CDR technologies have not been applied yet at large scale.
11. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 21
Narrow public claim
This has important implications for costs and technology transitions, among other things (see Section 6.3.5).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 21- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
This has important implications for costs and technology transitions, among other things (see Section 6.3.5).
12. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 22
Narrow public claim
AR5 database is given as dashed black lines.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 22- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>
13. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 22
Narrow public claim
Carbon budgets below 0 and relative mitigation above 100 % can be achieved via negative emissions.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 22- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Carbon budgets below 0 and relative mitigation above 100 % can be achieved via negative emissions.
14. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 24
Narrow public claim
The left panel shows 2010 historic emissions and the bars in the right panel indicate changes compared to 2010 (AR5 Scenario Database).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 24- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The left panel shows 2010 historic emissions and the bars in the right panel indicate changes compared to 2010 (AR5 Scenario Database).
15. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 24
Narrow public claim
The numbers in parenthesis show the interquartile range across scenarios.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 24- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The numbers in parenthesis show the interquartile range across scenarios.
16. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 26
Narrow public claim
Panel a) shows concentration-driven runs for the RCP scenarios from MAGICC (lines) and one-standard deviation ranges from CMIP5 models.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 26- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Panel a) shows concentration-driven runs for the RCP scenarios from MAGICC (lines) and one-standard deviation ranges from CMIP5 models.
17. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 27
Narrow public claim
Panel a) shows temperature increase relative reference as calculated by MAGICC (10th to 90th percentile for median MAGICC outcomes).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Panel a) shows temperature increase relative reference as calculated by MAGICC (10th to 90th percentile for median MAGICC outcomes).
18. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 27
Narrow public claim
Panel b) shows 2081 – 2100 temperature levels for the scenario categories and RCPs for the MAGICC outcomes.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Panel b) shows 2081 – 2100 temperature levels for the scenario categories and RCPs for the MAGICC outcomes.
19. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 27
Narrow public claim
The bars for the scenarios used in this assessment include both the 10th to 90th percentile range for median MAGICC outcomes (colored portion of the bars) and the 16th to 84th percentile range of the full distribution of MAGICC outcomes from these scenarios, which also captures the Earth-System uncertainty.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The bars for the scenarios used in this assessment include both the 10th to 90th percentile range for median MAGICC outcomes (colored portion of the bars) and the 16th to 84th percentile range of the full distribution of MAGICC outcomes from these scenarios, which also captures the Earth-System uncertainty.
20. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 27
Narrow public claim
The bars for the RCPs are based on the 16th to 84th of MAGICC outcomes based on the RCP emissions scenarios, capturing only the Earth-System uncertainty.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The bars for the RCPs are based on the 16th to 84th of MAGICC outcomes based on the RCP emissions scenarios, capturing only the Earth-System uncertainty.
21. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 28
Narrow public claim
Panel a) probability in 2100 of being below 2 °C versus probability of staying below 2 °C throughout the 21st century.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t03_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Panel a) probability in 2100 of being below 2 °C versus probability of staying below 2 °C throughout the 21st century.
22. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 28
Narrow public claim
MAGICC was run 600 times for each scenario.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t03_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>
23. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 30
Narrow public claim
Estimates of reserves and resources (‘R+R’) are shown as shaded areas and historical cumulative use until 2010 is shown as dashed black line.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 30- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Estimates of reserves and resources (‘R+R’) are shown as shaded areas and historical cumulative use until 2010 is shown as dashed black line.
24. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 30
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Dots correspond to individual scenarios, of which the number in each sample is indicated at the bottom of each panel.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 30- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Dots correspond to individual scenarios, of which the number in each sample is indicated at the bottom of each panel.
25. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 31
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The first two of these can be illustrated in terms of changes in the carbon intensity of energy.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 31- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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The first two of these can be illustrated in terms of changes in the carbon intensity of energy.
26. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 31
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GDP is aggregated using base-year market exchange rates.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 31- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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GDP is aggregated using base-year market exchange rates.
27. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 32
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Low carbon primary energy includes fossil energy with CCS, nuclear energy, bioenergy, and non-biomass renewable energy.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 32- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Low carbon primary energy includes fossil energy with CCS, nuclear energy, bioenergy, and non-biomass renewable energy.
28. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 32
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Sample includes baseline and idealized policy implementation scenarios.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 32- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Sample includes baseline and idealized policy implementation scenarios.
29. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 34
Narrow public claim
Notes: default (see Section 6.3.1) fossil fuel, industry, and land mitigation technology incentives assumed except as indicated by the following — ‘bioe’ = only land-based mitigation incentive is for modern bioenergy, ‘nobioe’ = land incentives but not for modern bioenergy, ‘bioe+land’ = modern bioenergy and land carbon stocks incentives, ‘bioe+agint’ = modern bioenergy incentive and agricultural intensification response allowed, ‘lowbio’ = global modern bioenergy constrained to 100 EJ / year, ‘noccs’ = CCS unavailable for fossil or bioenergy use.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 34- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Notes: default (see Section 6.3.1) fossil fuel, industry, and land mitigation technology incentives assumed except as indicated by the following — ‘bioe’ = only land-based mitigation incentive is for modern bioenergy, ‘nobioe’ = land incentives but not for modern bioenergy, ‘bioe+land’ = modern bioenergy and land carbon stocks incentives, ‘bioe+agint’ = modern bioenergy incentive and agricultural intensification response allowed, ‘lowbio’ = global modern bioenergy constrained to 100 EJ / year, ‘noccs’ = CCS unavailable for fossil or bioenergy use.
30. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 34
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Other land cover includes abandoned land, other arable land, and non-arable land.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 34- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Other land cover includes abandoned land, other arable land, and non-arable land.
31. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 35
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Also, some models do not include BECCS technologies and some no more than biopower options.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 35- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Also, some models do not include BECCS technologies and some no more than biopower options.
32. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 39
Narrow public claim
Panels show the development of (a) carbon prices, (c) consumption losses, (e) GDP losses and (f) abatement costs over time, and (b) the average carbon price (2015 – 2100), and (d) the NPV mitigation costs (2015 – 2100) discounted at a 5 % discount rate.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Panels show the development of (a) carbon prices, (c) consumption losses, (e) GDP losses and (f) abatement costs over time, and (b) the average carbon price (2015 – 2100), and (d) the NPV mitigation costs (2015 – 2100) discounted at a 5 % discount rate.
33. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 39
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The number of scenarios included in the boxplots is indicated at the bot tom of the panels, 2030 numbers also apply for 2020 and 2050.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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The number of scenarios included in the boxplots is indicated at the bot tom of the panels, 2030 numbers also apply for 2020 and 2050.
34. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 40
Narrow public claim
Results for NPV costs are shown by consumption losses, GDP losses, and abatement costs.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Results for NPV costs are shown by consumption losses, GDP losses, and abatement costs.
35. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 40
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Emissions reductions relative to baseline can be deduced by subtracting the fraction of residual cumulative emissions from unity.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Emissions reductions relative to baseline can be deduced by subtracting the fraction of residual cumulative emissions from unity.
36. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 40
Narrow public claim
Mitigation costs are reported in NPV consumption losses in percent baseline consumption for general equilibrium (GE) models and abatement costs in percent baseline GDP for partial equilibrium (PE) models.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Mitigation costs are reported in NPV consumption losses in percent baseline consumption for general equilibrium (GE) models and abatement costs in percent baseline GDP for partial equilibrium (PE) models.
37. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 40
Narrow public claim
A discount rate of 5 % per year was used for calculating average carbon prices and net present value mitigation costs.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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A discount rate of 5 % per year was used for calculating average carbon prices and net present value mitigation costs.
38. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 42
Narrow public claim
Cost increase is shown both in the medium term (2030 – 2050, left panel) and in the long term (2050 – 2100, right panel), calculated on undiscounted costs.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 42- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Cost increase is shown both in the medium term (2030 – 2050, left panel) and in the long term (2050 – 2100, right panel), calculated on undiscounted costs.
39. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 45
Narrow public claim
Values above (below) 1 indicate that the region has relative mitigation costs higher (lower) than global average.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 45- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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Values above (below) 1 indicate that the region has relative mitigation costs higher (lower) than global average.
40. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 46
Narrow public claim
Some of these model studies are more extensively described in a particular model study (Kober et al., 2014).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 46- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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Some of these model studies are more extensively described in a particular model study (Kober et al., 2014).
41. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 48
Narrow public claim
Emissions allowances are shown compared to 2010 levels, but this does not imply a preference for a specific base-year.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 48- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t05_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Emissions allowances are shown compared to 2010 levels, but this does not imply a preference for a specific base-year.
42. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 48
Narrow public claim
For the OECD-1990 in the category ‘responsibility, capabil ity, need’ the emission allowances in 2030 is – 106 % to – 128 % (20th to 80th percentile) below 2010 level (therefore not shown here).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 48- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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For the OECD-1990 in the category ‘responsibility, capabil ity, need’ the emission allowances in 2030 is – 106 % to – 128 % (20th to 80th percentile) below 2010 level (therefore not shown here).
43. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 49
Narrow public claim
For some regions, financial flows could be on the same order of magnitude as the investment requirements for emissions reductions (McCollum et al., 2013b).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 49- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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For some regions, financial flows could be on the same order of magnitude as the investment requirements for emissions reductions (McCollum et al., 2013b).
44. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 49
Narrow public claim
Values above (below) 1 indicate that the region has relative mitigation costs higher (lower) than global average ones.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 49- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t05_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Values above (below) 1 indicate that the region has relative mitigation costs higher (lower) than global average ones.
45. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 51
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Individual model results are indicated with a data point when 2 °C exceedance probability, based on the MAGICC results, is below 50 % for top panel or when 2.5 °C exceedance probability is below 50 % for bottom panel.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 51- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Individual model results are indicated with a data point when 2 °C exceedance probability, based on the MAGICC results, is below 50 % for top panel or when 2.5 °C exceedance probability is below 50 % for bottom panel.
46. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 51
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For these below-50 % scenarios the interquartile range is shown by a black rectangular frame.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 51- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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For these below-50 % scenarios the interquartile range is shown by a black rectangular frame.
47. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 51
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Number of reported individual results is shown in legend.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 51- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Number of reported individual results is shown in legend.
48. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 51
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The range of global GHG emissions in 2020 implied by the Cancún Pledges is based on an analysis of alternative interpretations of national pledges (see Section 13.13.1.3 for details).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 51- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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The range of global GHG emissions in 2020 implied by the Cancún Pledges is based on an analysis of alternative interpretations of national pledges (see Section 13.13.1.3 for details).
49. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 52
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Left-hand panel shows the development of GHG emissions to 2030.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 52- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Left-hand panel shows the development of GHG emissions to 2030.
50. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 52
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The scenarios are grouped according to different emissions levels by 2030 (colored in dark, medium and light green).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 52- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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The scenarios are grouped according to different emissions levels by 2030 (colored in dark, medium and light green).
51. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 54
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Arguments have been made on both sides of this debate (see Hoffert et al.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 54- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Arguments have been made on both sides of this debate (see Hoffert et al.
52. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 55
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For reference, current public R&D expenditures are approximately 10 Billion USD / yr.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 55- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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For reference, current public R&D expenditures are approximately 10 Billion USD / yr.
53. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 55
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Roughly half of the investments are reserved for advanced vehicle R&D.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 55- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Roughly half of the investments are reserved for advanced vehicle R&D.
54. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 61
Narrow public claim
The vast majority of these co-benefits would accrue in urban house holds of the developing world.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 61- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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The vast majority of these co-benefits would accrue in urban house holds of the developing world.
55. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 63
Narrow public claim
Lower panel shows related global policy costs of achieving the energy security, air quality, and mitigation objectives, either alone (w, x, y) or simultaneously (z).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 63- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Lower panel shows related global policy costs of achieving the energy security, air quality, and mitigation objectives, either alone (w, x, y) or simultaneously (z).
56. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 63
Narrow public claim
Policy costs are given as the increase in total energy system costs relative to a no-policy baseline; hence, they only capture the mitigation component and do not include the monetized co-benefits of, for example, reduced health impacts or climate damages.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 63- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Policy costs are given as the increase in total energy system costs relative to a no-policy baseline; hence, they only capture the mitigation component and do not include the monetized co-benefits of, for example, reduced health impacts or climate damages.
57. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 63
Narrow public claim
Sources: LIMITS model intercomparison (Jewell et al., 2013; Tavoni et al., 2013), WGIII AR5 Scenario Database (Annex II.10, includes only scenarios based on idealized policy implementation and full technology availability), Global Energy Assessment (GEA) scenarios (Riahi et al., 2012; McCollum et al., 2013a).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 63- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Sources: LIMITS model intercomparison (Jewell et al., 2013; Tavoni et al., 2013), WGIII AR5 Scenario Database (Annex II.10, includes only scenarios based on idealized policy implementation and full technology availability), Global Energy Assessment (GEA) scenarios (Riahi et al., 2012; McCollum et al., 2013a).
58. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 65
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Recent examples of such studies include Bollen et al.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 65- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Recent examples of such studies include Bollen et al.
59. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 66
Narrow public claim
When near-term mitigation is not sufficiently strong, future mitigation must rely heavily on CDR technologies such as BECCS, put ting greater pressure on future decision makers and highlighting any uncertainties and risks surrounding these technologies.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 66- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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When near-term mitigation is not sufficiently strong, future mitigation must rely heavily on CDR technologies such as BECCS, put ting greater pressure on future decision makers and highlighting any uncertainties and risks surrounding these technologies.
60. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 66
Narrow public claim
These linkages may be positive (co-benefits) or negative (risks).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 66- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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These linkages may be positive (co-benefits) or negative (risks).
61. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 67
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In the left panel electricity sector emissions are shown (“Electricity*”) in addition to energy sup ply sector emissions which they are part of, to illustrate their large role on the energy supply side.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 67- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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In the left panel electricity sector emissions are shown (“Electricity*”) in addition to energy sup ply sector emissions which they are part of, to illustrate their large role on the energy supply side.
62. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 68
Narrow public claim
Includes only scenarios based on idealized policy implementation that provide emissions at the sectoral level.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 68- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Includes only scenarios based on idealized policy implementation that provide emissions at the sectoral level.
63. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 69
Narrow public claim
Of importance, the observed trends can be very regional in character.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
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- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 69- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Of importance, the observed trends can be very regional in character.
64. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 74
Narrow public claim
Other techniques are even less mature and currently not evaluated in integrated models.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 74- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Other techniques are even less mature and currently not evaluated in integrated models.
65. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 74
Narrow public claim
At same time, BECCS applications do not feature in less ambitious mitigation pathways (van Vuuren et al., 2011a).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 74- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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At same time, BECCS applications do not feature in less ambitious mitigation pathways (van Vuuren et al., 2011a).
66. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 78
Narrow public claim
Technology options include a range of energy supply technologies such as nuclear power, solar energy, wind power, and hydroelectric power, as well as bioenergy and fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
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PDF page 78- Captured
- 2026-09-06
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Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Technology options include a range of energy supply technologies such as nuclear power, solar energy, wind power, and hydroelectric power, as well as bioenergy and fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage.
67. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 78
Narrow public claim
Less ambi tious goals are associated with lower costs this century.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 78- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Less ambi tious goals are associated with lower costs this century.
68. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 82
Narrow public claim
Gas Reduction Pathways in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025-Technical Report.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 82- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Gas Reduction Pathways in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025-Technical Report.
69. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 84
Narrow public claim
Dividend Hypothesis: Did You Really Expect Something for Nothing.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 84- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Dividend Hypothesis: Did You Really Expect Something for Nothing.
70. IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways · PDF page 84
Narrow public claim
Commentary on the Values of the Royal Society Report.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-06, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
- Section locator
PDF page 84- Captured
- 2026-09-06
- Source SHA-256
ac3544248c770a9dd6b907cde0e626b687acf7b5bd4a51928d6aff68bb5168fa- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom066_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Commentary on the Values of the Royal Society Report.