CLAIMBOUND / SOURCE-PUBLICATION EVIDENCE
Rail
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1. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 16
Narrow public claim
Rail networks carry 8% of the world’s motorised passenger movements and 7% of freight transport, but account for only 2% of energy use in the transport sector.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
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PDF page 16- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Rail networks carry 8% of the world’s motorised passenger movements and 7% of freight transport, but account for only 2% of energy use in the transport sector.
2. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 16
Narrow public claim
Rail services consume less than 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil (about 0.6% of global oil use) and around 290 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity (more than 1% of global electricity use).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
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PDF page 16- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Rail services consume less than 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil (about 0.6% of global oil use) and around 290 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity (more than 1% of global electricity use).
3. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 17
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The result is strong activity growth on high-speed rail: passenger movements in China increase more than threefold, while those in Japan increase by 85% and by 66% in the European Union.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
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PDF page 17- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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The result is strong activity growth on high-speed rail: passenger movements in China increase more than threefold, while those in Japan increase by 85% and by 66% in the European Union.
4. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 17
Narrow public claim
Construction of non-urban rail infrastructure in India is particularly notable, supporting volumes of passenger activity that, by 2050, are unparalleled anywhere in the world.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 17- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Construction of non-urban rail infrastructure in India is particularly notable, supporting volumes of passenger activity that, by 2050, are unparalleled anywhere in the world.
5. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 18
Narrow public claim
Annual average investment in the High Rail Scenario in trains and rail infrastructure combined is USD 770 billion, a 60% increase over investment in the Base Scenario.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 18- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Annual average investment in the High Rail Scenario in trains and rail infrastructure combined is USD 770 billion, a 60% increase over investment in the Base Scenario.
6. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 18
Narrow public claim
The biggest part of the increased investment goes to infrastructure for urban rail (nearly USD 190 billion) and high-speed rail (USD 70 billion); the additional costs of the trains are small in comparison.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 18- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Repeat this exact check locally
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The biggest part of the increased investment goes to infrastructure for urban rail (nearly USD 190 billion) and high-speed rail (USD 70 billion); the additional costs of the trains are small in comparison.
7. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 20
Narrow public claim
Its particular strengths are: energy efficiency (on average, trains are close to 12-times more energy efficient than road and air travel in terms of final energy per passenger transported and 8-times more efficient than trucks per tonne of freight carried); its reliance on very diverse energy sources; and its contribution to reducing congestion on road networks.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 20- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Its particular strengths are: energy efficiency (on average, trains are close to 12-times more energy efficient than road and air travel in terms of final energy per passenger transported and 8-times more efficient than trucks per tonne of freight carried); its reliance on very diverse energy sources; and its contribution to reducing congestion on road networks.
8. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 20
Narrow public claim
In 2016, rail services were an important component of passenger mobility in People’s Republic of China (“China”), India, Japan, European Union and Russian Federation (“Russia”), and provided a significant fraction of all goods movements in North America, China, Russia and India.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 20- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Repeat this exact check locally
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In 2016, rail services were an important component of passenger mobility in People’s Republic of China (“China”), India, Japan, European Union and Russian Federation (“Russia”), and provided a significant fraction of all goods movements in North America, China, Russia and India.
9. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 21
Narrow public claim
Chapter 2 outlines how the railway system and its energy needs are likely to evolve to 2050 on the basis of the policies, regulations and projects so far announced.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 21- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Chapter 2 outlines how the railway system and its energy needs are likely to evolve to 2050 on the basis of the policies, regulations and projects so far announced.
10. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 23
Narrow public claim
The same model is also the main tool used for the development of the quantitative projections analysed in this report (IEA, 2018).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 23- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Repeat this exact check locally
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The same model is also the main tool used for the development of the quantitative projections analysed in this report (IEA, 2018).
11. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 23
Narrow public claim
For example, the International Association of Public Transport defines regional and suburban commuter rail using indicators that include the distance between stations (between 1 and 25 kilometres), the speed of the trains (40-60 kilometres per hour) and the maximum duration of a single journey (one hour) (UITP, 2018a).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 23- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Repeat this exact check locally
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For example, the International Association of Public Transport defines regional and suburban commuter rail using indicators that include the distance between stations (between 1 and 25 kilometres), the speed of the trains (40-60 kilometres per hour) and the maximum duration of a single journey (one hour) (UITP, 2018a).
12. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 26
Narrow public claim
Rail travel is concentrated in a few regions: People’s Republic of China (“China”), the European Union, India, Japan and the Russian Federation (“Russia”), which together make up about 90% of global passenger rail activity.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 26- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Rail travel is concentrated in a few regions: People’s Republic of China (“China”), the European Union, India, Japan and the Russian Federation (“Russia”), which together make up about 90% of global passenger rail activity.
13. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 26
Narrow public claim
The pace of extension of China’s metro network since 1990 has outstripped the global average, pushing the country’s share of global metro networks from less than 10% in 1990 to more than 28% in 2017.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 26- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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The pace of extension of China’s metro network since 1990 has outstripped the global average, pushing the country’s share of global metro networks from less than 10% in 1990 to more than 28% in 2017.
14. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 27
Narrow public claim
Non-existent before 2008, the length of China’s high-speed rail network has overtaken that of all other countries in the world combined.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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Non-existent before 2008, the length of China’s high-speed rail network has overtaken that of all other countries in the world combined.
15. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 28
Narrow public claim
For future high-speed connections between Russia and China, the railway operator China Rail, is developing an adjustable gauge high-speed train (RT, 2016).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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For future high-speed connections between Russia and China, the railway operator China Rail, is developing an adjustable gauge high-speed train (RT, 2016).
16. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 29
Narrow public claim
However, improvements on this scale are typically slow and require the co-operation of national governments, which is not always a given (European Court of Auditors, 2016).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 29- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
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However, improvements on this scale are typically slow and require the co-operation of national governments, which is not always a given (European Court of Auditors, 2016).
17. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 29
Narrow public claim
In the next five years, new lines and extensions are expected to open in many countries, including the first lines to be built in sub-Saharan Africa (in Abidjan, Abuja and Lagos) (UITP, 2018a).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 29- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
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In the next five years, new lines and extensions are expected to open in many countries, including the first lines to be built in sub-Saharan Africa (in Abidjan, Abuja and Lagos) (UITP, 2018a).
18. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 32
Narrow public claim
In China, passenger activity per track-kilometre has risen by 54% since 2000, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries by 33%.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 32- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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In China, passenger activity per track-kilometre has risen by 54% since 2000, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries by 33%.
19. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 32
Narrow public claim
(This source also includes tracks with maximum speeds under 250 kilometres per hour, though those are not included in this analysis.) Key message • China is the clear leader in global high-speed rail network expansion in recent years while networks in Europe and Japan expanded at a slower pace.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 32- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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(This source also includes tracks with maximum speeds under 250 kilometres per hour, though those are not included in this analysis.) Key message • China is the clear leader in global high-speed rail network expansion in recent years while networks in Europe and Japan expanded at a slower pace.
20. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 33
Narrow public claim
High-speed rail track length source is UIC (2018b) with the assumption that high-speed rail infrastructure has two tracks per line.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 33- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t02_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
High-speed rail track length source is UIC (2018b) with the assumption that high-speed rail infrastructure has two tracks per line.
21. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 33
Narrow public claim
Box 1.2 Maglev and the Hyperloop A proposed alternative to high-speed rail is maglev (derived from magnetic levitation).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 33- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Box 1.2 Maglev and the Hyperloop A proposed alternative to high-speed rail is maglev (derived from magnetic levitation).
22. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 34
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Cost estimates for a Los Angeles and San Francisco connection are close to USD 6 billion (less than 10% of the projected costs the high-speed rail line currently under construction between the two cities) (CNBC, 2018).
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Cost estimates for a Los Angeles and San Francisco connection are close to USD 6 billion (less than 10% of the projected costs the high-speed rail line currently under construction between the two cities) (CNBC, 2018).
23. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 35
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India has the second-highest absolute level of passenger rail activity today, close behind China, accounting for nearly 30% of global rail passenger activity, carried on a vast network of railway lines.
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- 2026-09-07
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India has the second-highest absolute level of passenger rail activity today, close behind China, accounting for nearly 30% of global rail passenger activity, carried on a vast network of railway lines.
24. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 35
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Almost half of non-urban rail trips are made on Japan’s famous high-speed trains and urban rail plays a very significant role in urban passenger transport, accounting for 18% of rail passenger-kilometres nationwide.
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- 2026-09-07
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Almost half of non-urban rail trips are made on Japan’s famous high-speed trains and urban rail plays a very significant role in urban passenger transport, accounting for 18% of rail passenger-kilometres nationwide.
25. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 37
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With 6% average annual growth between 2005 and 2017, metros in Chinese cities have been the largest contributor to growth in urban rail activity in the recent years.
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PDF page 37- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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With 6% average annual growth between 2005 and 2017, metros in Chinese cities have been the largest contributor to growth in urban rail activity in the recent years.
26. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 37
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The urban rail activity for 2017 is based on reported data in the case of metros and an estimate in the case of light rail, based on UTIP (2018d) and ITDP (2018).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 37- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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The urban rail activity for 2017 is based on reported data in the case of metros and an estimate in the case of light rail, based on UTIP (2018d) and ITDP (2018).
27. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 38
Narrow public claim
Conventional and high-speed rail On a global basis, conventional and high-speed rail have consistently accounted for around 15% of the passenger-kilometres travelled by all transport modes outside of city limits since 2000 and around 90% of all travel by rail (even with extensive metro construction in many countries).
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PDF page 38- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Conventional and high-speed rail On a global basis, conventional and high-speed rail have consistently accounted for around 15% of the passenger-kilometres travelled by all transport modes outside of city limits since 2000 and around 90% of all travel by rail (even with extensive metro construction in many countries).
28. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 38
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This pace for overall conventional and high-speed rail expansion, in part, is driven by the increase of conventional rail in India, where activity nearly tripled between 2000 and 2016.
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PDF page 38- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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This pace for overall conventional and high-speed rail expansion, in part, is driven by the increase of conventional rail in India, where activity nearly tripled between 2000 and 2016.
29. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 39
Narrow public claim
Box 1.3 Usage patterns of conventional passenger rail services There are key differences between countries and regions which rely on high shares of conventional rail for passenger transport.
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PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Box 1.3 Usage patterns of conventional passenger rail services There are key differences between countries and regions which rely on high shares of conventional rail for passenger transport.
30. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 40
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Box 1.4 Digital technologies: autonomous trains and advanced rail traffic management and control systems Rapid advances in data, analytics and connectivity are driving a wave of digitalisation including in the transport sector (IEA, 2017).
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PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Box 1.4 Digital technologies: autonomous trains and advanced rail traffic management and control systems Rapid advances in data, analytics and connectivity are driving a wave of digitalisation including in the transport sector (IEA, 2017).
31. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 40
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These systems include Communication-Based Train Controls (CBTC),10 extensively used for urban rail, where they are combined with Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) to maximise the use of the network.
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PDF page 40- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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These systems include Communication-Based Train Controls (CBTC),10 extensively used for urban rail, where they are combined with Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) to maximise the use of the network.
32. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 41
Narrow public claim
On this front, two examples of recent progress are the operation of a driverless freight train on a 280 kilometre heavy-haul line in Western Australia and the testing of the world’s first autonomous tram in Potsdam, Germany (Burroughs, 2018; Connolly, 2018).
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PDF page 41- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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On this front, two examples of recent progress are the operation of a driverless freight train on a 280 kilometre heavy-haul line in Western Australia and the testing of the world’s first autonomous tram in Potsdam, Germany (Burroughs, 2018; Connolly, 2018).
33. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 41
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The European Union initiative “Shift2Rail” is working on potential standardisation and inter-operability of automated train operations with ERTMS (Siemens, 2016).
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PDF page 41- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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The European Union initiative “Shift2Rail” is working on potential standardisation and inter-operability of automated train operations with ERTMS (Siemens, 2016).
34. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 42
Narrow public claim
The primacy of freight rail is also discernible in Russia (2.2 freight train-kilometres for every passenger train-kilometre), in Brazil (1.9) and Australia (1.9).19 By contrast, the European Union, Japan and Korea employ the rail networks primarily for passenger transport.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 42- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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The primacy of freight rail is also discernible in Russia (2.2 freight train-kilometres for every passenger train-kilometre), in Brazil (1.9) and Australia (1.9).19 By contrast, the European Union, Japan and Korea employ the rail networks primarily for passenger transport.
35. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 43
Narrow public claim
Europe and Japan have the lowest average distances (less than 400 kilometres in the European Union) and loads (less than a third of the values of Russia and North America and less than half of the global average).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 43- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Europe and Japan have the lowest average distances (less than 400 kilometres in the European Union) and loads (less than a third of the values of Russia and North America and less than half of the global average).
36. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 43
Narrow public claim
Most surface freight is otherwise transported by heavy trucks (above 16 tonnes), 45% of surface goods transport on average in 2016.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 43- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Most surface freight is otherwise transported by heavy trucks (above 16 tonnes), 45% of surface goods transport on average in 2016.
37. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 44
Narrow public claim
Key message • Since 2000, freight rail activity has increased significantly in absolute terms in most countries while the rail modal share has decreased.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 44- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Key message • Since 2000, freight rail activity has increased significantly in absolute terms in most countries while the rail modal share has decreased.
38. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 44
Narrow public claim
As a capital-intensive business, rail requires clarity of political intention and a solid business case for commitments to be made.20 A solid business case depends upon the adequate demand as in large population centres or freight hubs that generate high demand for transportation volumes sufficient to pay back the significant investments.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 44- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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As a capital-intensive business, rail requires clarity of political intention and a solid business case for commitments to be made.20 A solid business case depends upon the adequate demand as in large population centres or freight hubs that generate high demand for transportation volumes sufficient to pay back the significant investments.
39. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 45
Narrow public claim
Land value capture has been most successfully exploited in Japan and Hong Kong, China,24 and automation and the reorganisation of services placing stronger focus on lines having the highest frequentation proved its crucial role in cutting costs (Siemens, 2016; Mazzola, 2018).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 45- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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Land value capture has been most successfully exploited in Japan and Hong Kong, China,24 and automation and the reorganisation of services placing stronger focus on lines having the highest frequentation proved its crucial role in cutting costs (Siemens, 2016; Mazzola, 2018).
40. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 45
Narrow public claim
High-speed rail also provides links between satellite cities and metropolitan areas, enhancing so called agglomeration economies (Fang, 2013).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 45- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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High-speed rail also provides links between satellite cities and metropolitan areas, enhancing so called agglomeration economies (Fang, 2013).
41. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 46
Narrow public claim
This is reflected in the very high share of rail freight in transport activity (over 50% of the total tonne-kilometres of the country, including maritime shipping) (IEA, 2018a).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 46- Captured
- 2026-09-07
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This is reflected in the very high share of rail freight in transport activity (over 50% of the total tonne-kilometres of the country, including maritime shipping) (IEA, 2018a).
42. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 46
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In the United States, 32% of the total mass transported by freight train was coal, followed by grain and grain mill products with 13% and chemicals at 11% (AAR, 2017).
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In the United States, 32% of the total mass transported by freight train was coal, followed by grain and grain mill products with 13% and chemicals at 11% (AAR, 2017).
43. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 47
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This phase was driven by free market principles – represented, for the United States, by the 1980 Staggers Rail Act (United States Public Law 96-448, 1980), providing for the deregulation of rail transport in order to achieve higher network density, the lowest possible operating costs and high levels of customer satisfaction.
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This phase was driven by free market principles – represented, for the United States, by the 1980 Staggers Rail Act (United States Public Law 96-448, 1980), providing for the deregulation of rail transport in order to achieve higher network density, the lowest possible operating costs and high levels of customer satisfaction.
44. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 47
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These are railways where freight trains are prioritised, enabling operators to optimise their schedules to meet the needs of their freight customers.27 Mature railways prioritising passenger movements are usually also open to freight services.
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These are railways where freight trains are prioritised, enabling operators to optimise their schedules to meet the needs of their freight customers.27 Mature railways prioritising passenger movements are usually also open to freight services.
45. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 48
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Railways today consume close to 2% of transport final energy use, a modest share relative to road, maritime and air transport, especially since rail constitutes a much higher share of transport activity (8% of total passenger-kilometres and 7% of total tonne-kilometres).
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Railways today consume close to 2% of transport final energy use, a modest share relative to road, maritime and air transport, especially since rail constitutes a much higher share of transport activity (8% of total passenger-kilometres and 7% of total tonne-kilometres).
46. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 48
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When expressed as final energy use per passenger-kilometre or tonne-kilometre, the energy intensity of rail generally significantly outperforms other transport modes given its unique characteristics.29 Moving passengers and goods by rail is more energy efficient than by road by a wide margin.
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When expressed as final energy use per passenger-kilometre or tonne-kilometre, the energy intensity of rail generally significantly outperforms other transport modes given its unique characteristics.29 Moving passengers and goods by rail is more energy efficient than by road by a wide margin.
47. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 50
Narrow public claim
Key message • Energy demand for rail has declined in the European Union and Japan, remained constant in North America and increased in Russia, China and India in the period since 2000.
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Key message • Energy demand for rail has declined in the European Union and Japan, remained constant in North America and increased in Russia, China and India in the period since 2000.
48. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 50
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About 55% of electricity use in rail transport is for passenger services, and most of the diesel (85%) is for freight services.
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About 55% of electricity use in rail transport is for passenger services, and most of the diesel (85%) is for freight services.
49. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 51
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Further details on the forces behind rail transport electrification and, in particular, on the key determinants of these energy demand figures are presented in Box 1.6.
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Further details on the forces behind rail transport electrification and, in particular, on the key determinants of these energy demand figures are presented in Box 1.6.
50. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 51
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Such technology was still marginally used in China (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2018) and India (Indian Railways, 2018b) until the early 2000s, when it was fully discarded.
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Such technology was still marginally used in China (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2018) and India (Indian Railways, 2018b) until the early 2000s, when it was fully discarded.
51. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 55
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Direct emissions from other sectors include electricity and heat production with 41%, manufacturing industries and construction with 19%, residential sector with 6% and others 10%.
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Direct emissions from other sectors include electricity and heat production with 41%, manufacturing industries and construction with 19%, residential sector with 6% and others 10%.
52. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 56
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Freight specific CO2 emissions were reduced by only 6%, suggesting that sector coupling measures were more frequently adopted in the presence of a direct relationship with consumers than in case of business-to-business relationships (UIC, 2017b).
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Freight specific CO2 emissions were reduced by only 6%, suggesting that sector coupling measures were more frequently adopted in the presence of a direct relationship with consumers than in case of business-to-business relationships (UIC, 2017b).
53. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 56
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Since 2017, NS, the railway company in the Netherlands, has sourced all of its tractive energy from domestic wind installations and others in Belgium and Scandinavia, resulting in no net CO2 emissions (NS, 2017).
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Since 2017, NS, the railway company in the Netherlands, has sourced all of its tractive energy from domestic wind installations and others in Belgium and Scandinavia, resulting in no net CO2 emissions (NS, 2017).
54. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 57
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Box 1.7 explores how the benefit of rail in terms of GHG emission reductions, compared with other forms of transport, can be enhanced further by voluntary actions within the rail transport sector.
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PDF page 57- Captured
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Box 1.7 explores how the benefit of rail in terms of GHG emission reductions, compared with other forms of transport, can be enhanced further by voluntary actions within the rail transport sector.
55. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 57
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These results are obtained assuming a diesel train efficiency of 35%, an electric powertrain efficiency of 90% and a power plant efficiency of 50%.
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These results are obtained assuming a diesel train efficiency of 35%, an electric powertrain efficiency of 90% and a power plant efficiency of 50%.
56. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 59
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Sources: The choice of the share of tunnels and bridges on the rail line are based on various case studies examined in Akerman (2011); Bueno, Hoyos and Capellan-Perez (2017); Chen and Whalley (2012); Chester and Horvath (2010); TERI (2012) and UIC (2016).
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PDF page 59- Captured
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Sources: The choice of the share of tunnels and bridges on the rail line are based on various case studies examined in Akerman (2011); Bueno, Hoyos and Capellan-Perez (2017); Chen and Whalley (2012); Chester and Horvath (2010); TERI (2012) and UIC (2016).
57. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 61
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Sources: Values for embedded emissions from metro infrastructure construction and maintenance are based on ranges provided in Chester and Cano (2016); Li et al., (2018) and TERI (2012).
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Sources: Values for embedded emissions from metro infrastructure construction and maintenance are based on ranges provided in Chester and Cano (2016); Li et al., (2018) and TERI (2012).
58. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 62
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The medium case offers net benefits in less than four years, while the most pessimistic scenario achieves emissions neutrality after 24 years.
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PDF page 62- Captured
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The medium case offers net benefits in less than four years, while the most pessimistic scenario achieves emissions neutrality after 24 years.
59. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 63
Narrow public claim
Emissions associated with the manufacture, maintenance and recycling of train and truck rolling stock is based on TERI (2012).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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Emissions associated with the manufacture, maintenance and recycling of train and truck rolling stock is based on TERI (2012).
60. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 65
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Douglas et al (2015), “An assessment of available measures to reduce traction energy use in railway networks”, Energy Conversion and Management, Vol.
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Douglas et al (2015), “An assessment of available measures to reduce traction energy use in railway networks”, Energy Conversion and Management, Vol.
61. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 70
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Increasing transport demand and current capacity bottlenecks require rail networks to be extended by more than 430 000 track-kilometres through to 2050, a 27% increase from 2016.
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Increasing transport demand and current capacity bottlenecks require rail networks to be extended by more than 430 000 track-kilometres through to 2050, a 27% increase from 2016.
62. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 70
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Absent passenger and freight activity by rail, oil demand in 2050 would be 9.5 mb/d higher, 16% higher than the total projected demand from transport in that year.
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python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Absent passenger and freight activity by rail, oil demand in 2050 would be 9.5 mb/d higher, 16% higher than the total projected demand from transport in that year.
63. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 71
Narrow public claim
The Base Scenario models how rail transport might handle competitive pressures on the basis of existing policies and those that have been announced as of December 2018.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 71- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The Base Scenario models how rail transport might handle competitive pressures on the basis of existing policies and those that have been announced as of December 2018.
64. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 71
Narrow public claim
The development of passenger activity in the Base Scenario is projected from 2018 to 2050 on the basis of a few key assumptions.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 71- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The development of passenger activity in the Base Scenario is projected from 2018 to 2050 on the basis of a few key assumptions.
65. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 72
Narrow public claim
The Base Scenario is not a normative scenario: it does not depict a Key sources for this assessment include the European Commission (2016).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 72- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
The Base Scenario is not a normative scenario: it does not depict a Key sources for this assessment include the European Commission (2016).
66. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 73
Narrow public claim
From 2016 to 2050, more than 430 000 track-kilometres for conventional and freight rail are built (an increase of more than a quarter from 2016).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 73- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
From 2016 to 2050, more than 430 000 track-kilometres for conventional and freight rail are built (an increase of more than a quarter from 2016).
67. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 73
Narrow public claim
By 2050, North America (prioritising freight) and Europe (prioritising passenger) have extended their rail networks the most.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 73- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
By 2050, North America (prioritising freight) and Europe (prioritising passenger) have extended their rail networks the most.
68. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 74
Narrow public claim
Key message • Most of the high-speed rail network length in the Base Scenario in 2050 has already been built or is under construction.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 74- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Key message • Most of the high-speed rail network length in the Base Scenario in 2050 has already been built or is under construction.
69. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 76
Narrow public claim
Most of the growth of passenger rail activity in the Base Scenario is attributable to expanding rail use in emerging economies, most notably in India (where passenger rail activity triples between 2017 and 2050, mostly on the conventional rail network) and China (where passenger rail doubles, mostly on its extensive high-speed rail network).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 76- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Most of the growth of passenger rail activity in the Base Scenario is attributable to expanding rail use in emerging economies, most notably in India (where passenger rail activity triples between 2017 and 2050, mostly on the conventional rail network) and China (where passenger rail doubles, mostly on its extensive high-speed rail network).
70. IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment · PDF page 77
Narrow public claim
Urban rail Today, 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, but only one-tenth of that population lives in large cities with access to urban rail systems, most of which are in Europe and Asia.9 Partly as a consequence of this fact, metro and urban light rail account for less than 1% of motorised passenger-kilometres travelled worldwide.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-07, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IEA The Future of Rail: Opportunities for energy and the environment
- Section locator
PDF page 77- Captured
- 2026-09-07
- Source SHA-256
8ad5816351711b532e98facc9256be62a4d34c75871ed4bf50547a971d9783d0- Reproduction
- Maintainer run only; no independent operator rerun is registered.
Repeat this exact check locally
Download the PDF to a local file, then run the committed verifier. A changed PDF is reported as drift rather than silently accepted.
python scripts/verify_primary_public_claim_group.py artifacts/cb7k_dom072_t07_primary_claims.json --source-file <local-raw-pdf>Exact source quote
Urban rail Today, 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, but only one-tenth of that population lives in large cities with access to urban rail systems, most of which are in Europe and Asia.9 Partly as a consequence of this fact, metro and urban light rail account for less than 1% of motorised passenger-kilometres travelled worldwide.