CLAIMBOUND / SOURCE-PUBLICATION EVIDENCE
Water quality
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1. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 7
Narrow public claim
SDGs cannot be met without adequate and safe water (high confidence), and water is fundamental to all systems transition (high confidence). {4.1, 4.7, 4.7.1, 4.8, 4.8.7} Water garners a significant share of public and private adaptation funds (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
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PDF page 7- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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SDGs cannot be met without adequate and safe water (high confidence), and water is fundamental to all systems transition (high confidence). {4.1, 4.7, 4.7.1, 4.8, 4.8.7} Water garners a significant share of public and private adaptation funds (high confidence).
2. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 7
Narrow public claim
However, barriers remain for low-income countries to access funds (medium confidence), and there is insufficient evidence on benefits for marginalised groups (medium confidence). {4.8.2} Many mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio energy and afforestation and reforestation, can have a high-water footprint (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 7- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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However, barriers remain for low-income countries to access funds (medium confidence), and there is insufficient evidence on benefits for marginalised groups (medium confidence). {4.8.2} Many mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio energy and afforestation and reforestation, can have a high-water footprint (high confidence).
3. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 10
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Water security/insecurity is a broader concept with definitions beyond physical water scarcity, encompassing access to water services, safety from poor water quality and flooding, and appropriate water governance that ensures access to safe water (Sadoff et al., 2020).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Water security/insecurity is a broader concept with definitions beyond physical water scarcity, encompassing access to water services, safety from poor water quality and flooding, and appropriate water governance that ensures access to safe water (Sadoff et al., 2020).
4. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 10
Narrow public claim
For example, ‘economic water scarcity’ has been defined as a situation where ‘human, institutional, and financial capital limit access to water, even though water in nature is available locally to meet human demands’ (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
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PDF page 10- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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For example, ‘economic water scarcity’ has been defined as a situation where ‘human, institutional, and financial capital limit access to water, even though water in nature is available locally to meet human demands’ (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007).
5. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 11
Narrow public claim
Low policy challenges arise when the projected water scarcity in 2050 is lower (<0.4), and the level of uncertainty remains relatively stable in future projections.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Low policy challenges arise when the projected water scarcity in 2050 is lower (<0.4), and the level of uncertainty remains relatively stable in future projections.
6. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 11
Narrow public claim
Medium policy challenge arises when either the central estimate of water scarcity remains low but uncertainty increases, or the uncertainty is stable but the central estimate of water scarcity for 2050 is higher (>0.4).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 11- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Medium policy challenge arises when either the central estimate of water scarcity remains low but uncertainty increases, or the uncertainty is stable but the central estimate of water scarcity for 2050 is higher (>0.4).
7. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 12
Narrow public claim
However, relative levels of water security in different places can be compared using metrics representing critical aspects of security (Gain et al., 2016; Young et al., 2019), ideally with thresholds for secure/insecure compared with local experience to assess validity (Young et al., 2019).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 12- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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However, relative levels of water security in different places can be compared using metrics representing critical aspects of security (Gain et al., 2016; Young et al., 2019), ideally with thresholds for secure/insecure compared with local experience to assess validity (Young et al., 2019).
8. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 12
Narrow public claim
Most people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation (Marson and Savin, 2015; Naik, 2017; Armah et al., 2018).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 12- Captured
- 2026-09-05
- Source SHA-256
05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Most people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation (Marson and Savin, 2015; Naik, 2017; Armah et al., 2018).
9. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 14
Narrow public claim
But urbanisation can also increase the sensible heat flux driving greater or more extreme precipitation (Kusaka et al., 2014; Niyogi et al., 2017).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 14- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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But urbanisation can also increase the sensible heat flux driving greater or more extreme precipitation (Kusaka et al., 2014; Niyogi et al., 2017).
10. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 21
Narrow public claim
(12.4.5) conclude with medium confidence that anthropogenic climate change has altered local and regional streamflow in various parts of the world, but with no clear signal in the global mean.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 21- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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(12.4.5) conclude with medium confidence that anthropogenic climate change has altered local and regional streamflow in various parts of the world, but with no clear signal in the global mean.
11. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 23
Narrow public claim
In contrast, in southwestern Europe, land cover changes and increased water demands by irrigation are the main drivers of streamflow reduction (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019) (Section 4.3.1).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 23- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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In contrast, in southwestern Europe, land cover changes and increased water demands by irrigation are the main drivers of streamflow reduction (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019) (Section 4.3.1).
12. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 24
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Black box outlines show climatic regions with at least 80 gauging stations with almost complete daily observations over 1971–2010, using the SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) regions.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 24- Captured
- 2026-09-05
- Source SHA-256
05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Black box outlines show climatic regions with at least 80 gauging stations with almost complete daily observations over 1971–2010, using the SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) regions.
13. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 24
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Middle column: trends simulated by eight global hydrological models driven by four CMIP5 Earth System Models, with human water and land use from 1971 to 2020 and the pre-industrial control climate state.
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 24- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Middle column: trends simulated by eight global hydrological models driven by four CMIP5 Earth System Models, with human water and land use from 1971 to 2020 and the pre-industrial control climate state.
14. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 27
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(b) Local flood protection standard (return period) at sub-country scale (Scussolini et al., 2016) based on published reports and documents, websites and personal communications with experts.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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(b) Local flood protection standard (return period) at sub-country scale (Scussolini et al., 2016) based on published reports and documents, websites and personal communications with experts.
15. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 27
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Anthropogenic climate change has altered 64% (eight out of 22 events increased, eight decreased) of floods events with significant losses and damages during 2010–2013 (Hirabayashi et al., 2021a).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 27- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Anthropogenic climate change has altered 64% (eight out of 22 events increased, eight decreased) of floods events with significant losses and damages during 2010–2013 (Hirabayashi et al., 2021a).
16. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 28
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(b) Drought vulnerability is derived from an arithmetic composite model combining social, economic and infrastructural factors proposed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2004).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 28- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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(b) Drought vulnerability is derived from an arithmetic composite model combining social, economic and infrastructural factors proposed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2004).
17. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 38
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Introduction Some extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and (or) severity as a result of climate change (Seneviratne et al., 2021) (high confidence).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 38- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Introduction Some extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and (or) severity as a result of climate change (Seneviratne et al., 2021) (high confidence).
18. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 38
Narrow public claim
These include extreme rainfall events (Roxy et al., 2017; Myhre et al., 2019; Tabari, 2020); extreme and prolonged heat leading to catastrophic fires (Bowman et al., 2017; Krikken et al., 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020); and more frequent and stronger cyclones/ hurricanes and resulting extreme rainfall (Griego et al., 2020).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 38- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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These include extreme rainfall events (Roxy et al., 2017; Myhre et al., 2019; Tabari, 2020); extreme and prolonged heat leading to catastrophic fires (Bowman et al., 2017; Krikken et al., 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020); and more frequent and stronger cyclones/ hurricanes and resulting extreme rainfall (Griego et al., 2020).
19. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 39
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Because it happened amidst the COVID-19 crisis, evacuation plans were constrained due to social distancing norms (Baidya et al., 2020).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-09-05
- Source SHA-256
05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Because it happened amidst the COVID-19 crisis, evacuation plans were constrained due to social distancing norms (Baidya et al., 2020).
20. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 39
Narrow public claim
Further exacerbating inequities in human systems: Hurricane Harvey, USA, 2017 Hurricane Harvey, a category 4 hurricane, made landfall on Texas and Louisiana in August 2017, causing catastrophic flooding and 80 deaths and inflicting $125 billion (2017 USD) in damage, of which $67 billion (2017 USD) was attributable to climate change (Frame et al., 2020).
What this card proves
The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
What this card does not prove
It does not independently establish the underlying model capability, safety, comparison, or real-world truth. This is a retrospective single-maintainer source-publication audit.
- Primary source
- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
- Section locator
PDF page 39- Captured
- 2026-09-05
- Source SHA-256
05e4c382a5b3955a65675680ed109b2efbb697e3b9e3e4e191edb1de893e3d82- Reproduction
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Further exacerbating inequities in human systems: Hurricane Harvey, USA, 2017 Hurricane Harvey, a category 4 hurricane, made landfall on Texas and Louisiana in August 2017, causing catastrophic flooding and 80 deaths and inflicting $125 billion (2017 USD) in damage, of which $67 billion (2017 USD) was attributable to climate change (Frame et al., 2020).
21. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 40
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Seventy taxa had more than 30% of their habitat impacted, including 21 already identified as threatened with extinction (Ward et al., 2020).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
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- 2026-09-05
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Seventy taxa had more than 30% of their habitat impacted, including 21 already identified as threatened with extinction (Ward et al., 2020).
22. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 40
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While the prevailing weather conditions were strongly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole pressure pattern, with a contribution from weakly positive ENSO conditions in the Pacific, the fact that Australia is approximately 1°C warmer than the early 20th century demonstrates links to anthropogenic climate change.
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While the prevailing weather conditions were strongly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole pressure pattern, with a contribution from weakly positive ENSO conditions in the Pacific, the fact that Australia is approximately 1°C warmer than the early 20th century demonstrates links to anthropogenic climate change.
23. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 41
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Disaster risk reduction needs to be a central component of adaptation and mitigation for meeting Sustainable Development Goals and for a climate-resilient future Disasters resulting from extreme events are increasingly experienced by a large section of human population (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018).
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PDF page 41- Captured
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Disaster risk reduction needs to be a central component of adaptation and mitigation for meeting Sustainable Development Goals and for a climate-resilient future Disasters resulting from extreme events are increasingly experienced by a large section of human population (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018).
24. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 41
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Far from being disconnected policy objectives, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation/adaptation are two sides of the same coin as recognised explicitly by the Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework of 2015.
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PDF page 41- Captured
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Far from being disconnected policy objectives, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation/adaptation are two sides of the same coin as recognised explicitly by the Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework of 2015.
25. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 47
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For any given GWL, similar ranges of changes are seen with other scenarios that reach that GWL, and the difference between scenarios is smaller than the ensemble uncertainty (Seneviratne et al., 2021).
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PDF page 47- Captured
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For any given GWL, similar ranges of changes are seen with other scenarios that reach that GWL, and the difference between scenarios is smaller than the ensemble uncertainty (Seneviratne et al., 2021).
26. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 47
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The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile precipitation changes in individual grid boxes.
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PDF page 47- Captured
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The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile precipitation changes in individual grid boxes.
27. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 48
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Using central estimates from five ensembles of climate models (CMIP5, CMIP6, HAPPI, HELIX and UKCP18) using different models and different experimental designs for the ensembles, the maps show the number of ensembles for which the central estimate shows a significant drying or wetting change at 2°C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels.
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PDF page 48- Captured
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Using central estimates from five ensembles of climate models (CMIP5, CMIP6, HAPPI, HELIX and UKCP18) using different models and different experimental designs for the ensembles, the maps show the number of ensembles for which the central estimate shows a significant drying or wetting change at 2°C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels.
28. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 48
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Regions with thick outlines are where CMIP6 disagrees with three of the other four ensembles on the significance of the change, highlighting where over-relying on CMIP6 alone may not fully represent the level of confidence in the projections.
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PDF page 48- Captured
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Regions with thick outlines are where CMIP6 disagrees with three of the other four ensembles on the significance of the change, highlighting where over-relying on CMIP6 alone may not fully represent the level of confidence in the projections.
29. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 49
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Fewer models and realisations are available for the 2°C and 4°C GWLs, as fewer scenarios and/or models reach those warming levels.
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PDF page 49- Captured
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Fewer models and realisations are available for the 2°C and 4°C GWLs, as fewer scenarios and/or models reach those warming levels.
30. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 49
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The CMIP6 projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation are discussed in more detail by WGI (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 49- Captured
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The CMIP6 projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation are discussed in more detail by WGI (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021).
31. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 51
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Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 40, 40 and 31 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming.
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Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 40, 40 and 31 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming.
32. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 52
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The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile soil moisture changes in individual grid boxes.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 52- Captured
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The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile soil moisture changes in individual grid boxes.
33. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 52
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Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 34, 34 and 26 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming.
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PDF page 52- Captured
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Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 34, 34 and 26 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming.
34. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 54
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A comparison of the projected changes at the 4°C GWL for the four individual ensembles is shown in Figure Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE.1 in Chapter 1.
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A comparison of the projected changes at the 4°C GWL for the four individual ensembles is shown in Figure Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE.1 in Chapter 1.
35. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 56
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Note that number of GCMs used to calculate global warming level (GWL) 4.0 is less than that for other GWLs, as the global mean temperature change of some GCMs did not exceed 4°C.
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PDF page 56- Captured
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Note that number of GCMs used to calculate global warming level (GWL) 4.0 is less than that for other GWLs, as the global mean temperature change of some GCMs did not exceed 4°C.
36. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 64
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Asia and northern high-latitude areas are projected to see more than 20% increases in gross hydropower potential (high confidence).
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Asia and northern high-latitude areas are projected to see more than 20% increases in gross hydropower potential (high confidence).
37. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 66
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Waterborne diseases result from complex causal relationships between climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that are not fully understood or modelled (Boholm and Prutzer, 2017) (high confidence).
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Waterborne diseases result from complex causal relationships between climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that are not fully understood or modelled (Boholm and Prutzer, 2017) (high confidence).
38. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 69
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More detailed local and regional models are needed, incorporating migrant destinations (Abel et al., 2019) and immobility (Zickgraf, 2018).
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More detailed local and regional models are needed, incorporating migrant destinations (Abel et al., 2019) and immobility (Zickgraf, 2018).
39. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 70
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The changing distribution of these plants may lead to a loss of Indigenous knowledge and affect inter-tribal reciprocity and gifting practices (11.4.2).
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The changing distribution of these plants may lead to a loss of Indigenous knowledge and affect inter-tribal reciprocity and gifting practices (11.4.2).
40. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 73
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Small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages (high confidence) (Holding et al., 2016; Pearce et al., 2018; Gheuens et al., 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020).
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PDF page 73- Captured
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Small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages (high confidence) (Holding et al., 2016; Pearce et al., 2018; Gheuens et al., 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020).
41. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 73
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Drought events have also severely affected FWL recharge (Barkey and Bailey, 2017), with extraction rates further threatening available groundwater volumes (Post et al., 2018).
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Drought events have also severely affected FWL recharge (Barkey and Bailey, 2017), with extraction rates further threatening available groundwater volumes (Post et al., 2018).
42. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 75
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In addition, hydropower can also play a role in compensating for the intermittency of other renewable energies (François et al., 2014).
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- IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water
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PDF page 75- Captured
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In addition, hydropower can also play a role in compensating for the intermittency of other renewable energies (François et al., 2014).
43. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 76
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However, there are regional limitations to this expansion due to renewable water resource limitations, including water quality issues (Zaveri et al., 2016; Turner et al., 2019).
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PDF page 76- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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However, there are regional limitations to this expansion due to renewable water resource limitations, including water quality issues (Zaveri et al., 2016; Turner et al., 2019).
44. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 76
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Depending on the specific spatial, temporal and technological characteristics of irrigation expansion, up to 35% of current rain-fed production could sustainably shift to irrigation with limited negative environmental effects (Rosa et al., 2020b).
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Depending on the specific spatial, temporal and technological characteristics of irrigation expansion, up to 35% of current rain-fed production could sustainably shift to irrigation with limited negative environmental effects (Rosa et al., 2020b).
45. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 77
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Under economic optimisation assumptions, shifts towards less water-intensive and less climate-sensitive crops would be optimal in terms of water use efficiency and absolute yield increases; however, this could pose risks to food security as production shifts away from main staple crops (Nechifor and Winning, 2019).
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PDF page 77- Captured
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Under economic optimisation assumptions, shifts towards less water-intensive and less climate-sensitive crops would be optimal in terms of water use efficiency and absolute yield increases; however, this could pose risks to food security as production shifts away from main staple crops (Nechifor and Winning, 2019).
46. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 78
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COVID-19 acts as a stress multiplier for women and girls in charge of water collection and minorities and disabled people who are not engaged in water management (Phillips et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Lonebear et al., 2020).
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PDF page 78- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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COVID-19 acts as a stress multiplier for women and girls in charge of water collection and minorities and disabled people who are not engaged in water management (Phillips et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Lonebear et al., 2020).
47. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 78
Narrow public claim
Across the world, existing inequalities deepened due to lockdowns, which further limited access to clean water and education for women and girls, and reinstated gendered responsibilities of child, elderly and sick care, which had been previously externalised (Cousins, 2020; Neal, 2020; Zavaleta-Cortijo et al., 2020).
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PDF page 78- Captured
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Across the world, existing inequalities deepened due to lockdowns, which further limited access to clean water and education for women and girls, and reinstated gendered responsibilities of child, elderly and sick care, which had been previously externalised (Cousins, 2020; Neal, 2020; Zavaleta-Cortijo et al., 2020).
48. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 81
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It is estimated that 380 billion m3 of wastewater is produced annually worldwide, which equals about 15% of agricultural water withdrawals.
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PDF page 81- Captured
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It is estimated that 380 billion m3 of wastewater is produced annually worldwide, which equals about 15% of agricultural water withdrawals.
49. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 81
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The recovery of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from wastewater can offset 13.4% of the global agriculture demand for these nutrients (Jiménez and Asano, 2008; Fernández-Arévalo et al., 2017).
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PDF page 81- Captured
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The recovery of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from wastewater can offset 13.4% of the global agriculture demand for these nutrients (Jiménez and Asano, 2008; Fernández-Arévalo et al., 2017).
50. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 82
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Furthermore, a meta-review of 928 NbS measures globally shows that NbS largely addresses water-related hazards like heavy precipitation (37%) and drought (28%) (Kapos et al., 2020).
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PDF page 82- Captured
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Furthermore, a meta-review of 928 NbS measures globally shows that NbS largely addresses water-related hazards like heavy precipitation (37%) and drought (28%) (Kapos et al., 2020).
51. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 82
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Natural infrastructure (green and blue) uses natural or semi-natural systems, for example, wetlands, healthy freshwater ecosystems, etc., to supply clean water, regulate flooding, enhance water quality and control erosion (6.3.3.1 to 6.3.3.6.).
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PDF page 82- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Natural infrastructure (green and blue) uses natural or semi-natural systems, for example, wetlands, healthy freshwater ecosystems, etc., to supply clean water, regulate flooding, enhance water quality and control erosion (6.3.3.1 to 6.3.3.6.).
52. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 84
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Box 4.7 | Flood-Related Adaptation Responses Floods, due to their rapid onset and destructive force, require specific adaptation measures.
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PDF page 84- Captured
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Box 4.7 | Flood-Related Adaptation Responses Floods, due to their rapid onset and destructive force, require specific adaptation measures.
53. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 84
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Historically, to address flood damages and risk protection, retreat and accommodation were most common, emphasizing protecting and retreating (Wong et al., 2014; Bott and Braun, 2019).
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PDF page 84- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Historically, to address flood damages and risk protection, retreat and accommodation were most common, emphasizing protecting and retreating (Wong et al., 2014; Bott and Braun, 2019).
54. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 85
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These comprise mostly of elevated homes or different flood protection measures considering vegetation around the house to make those flood resilient (Ling et al., 2015; Abbas et al., 2018; Ferdous et al., 2019).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 85- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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These comprise mostly of elevated homes or different flood protection measures considering vegetation around the house to make those flood resilient (Ling et al., 2015; Abbas et al., 2018; Ferdous et al., 2019).
55. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 85
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Adaptation to floods needs to be considered at a local level, considering the types of floods, community’s capacities and available livelihoods (Fenton et al., 2017a).
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PDF page 85- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Adaptation to floods needs to be considered at a local level, considering the types of floods, community’s capacities and available livelihoods (Fenton et al., 2017a).
56. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 87
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High confidence: more than 67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50–67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2, and low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories 1 and 2.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 87- Captured
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High confidence: more than 67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50–67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2, and low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories 1 and 2.
57. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 92
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All these studies are either category 1 or category 2 studies in that the link between adaptation response and the outcome is either causal or correlated with one another.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 92- Captured
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All these studies are either category 1 or category 2 studies in that the link between adaptation response and the outcome is either causal or correlated with one another.
58. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 93
Narrow public claim
Quan et al., 2019), and can lead to more use of fertilisers and herbicides (Thierfelder et al., 2015; Sujakhu et al., 2016; Khanal et al., 2018a; Yamba et al., 2019).
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PDF page 93- Captured
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Quan et al., 2019), and can lead to more use of fertilisers and herbicides (Thierfelder et al., 2015; Sujakhu et al., 2016; Khanal et al., 2018a; Yamba et al., 2019).
59. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 97
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Based on the ability of an implemented option to return the system to its baseline state, the effectiveness is classified based on the share of risk the option can reduce: large (>80%); moderate (80–50%); small (<50–30%); insufficient (<30%).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 97- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Based on the ability of an implemented option to return the system to its baseline state, the effectiveness is classified based on the share of risk the option can reduce: large (>80%); moderate (80–50%); small (<50–30%); insufficient (<30%).
60. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 97
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Residual impacts show the share of remaining impacts after adaptation has been implemented: negligible (<5%); small (5 to <20%); moderate (20 to <50); large (≥50%).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 97- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Residual impacts show the share of remaining impacts after adaptation has been implemented: negligible (<5%); small (5 to <20%); moderate (20 to <50); large (≥50%).
61. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 98
Narrow public claim
Strength of evidence is high if >80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome; medium if between 50 and 80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome, and low if <50% of adaptation responses have at least one beneficial outcome.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 98- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Strength of evidence is high if >80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome; medium if between 50 and 80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome, and low if <50% of adaptation responses have at least one beneficial outcome.
62. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 98
Narrow public claim
High confidence: more than 67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50–67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2; low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories and 2.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 98- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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High confidence: more than 67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50–67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2; low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories and 2.
63. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 100
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Where less than 20% of the articles reporting on the respective adaptation option identify the presence of a constraint, it is classified as ‘limited’, where 20 to 50% report on a specific constraint it is considered as ‘moderate’.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 100- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Where less than 20% of the articles reporting on the respective adaptation option identify the presence of a constraint, it is classified as ‘limited’, where 20 to 50% report on a specific constraint it is considered as ‘moderate’.
64. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 103
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For instance, agricultural production requires significant energy inputs due to intensive groundwater pumping (Siddiqi and Wescoat, 2013; Gurdak, 2018; Putra et al., 2020).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 103- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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For instance, agricultural production requires significant energy inputs due to intensive groundwater pumping (Siddiqi and Wescoat, 2013; Gurdak, 2018; Putra et al., 2020).
65. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 103
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Similarly, hydropower production often has trade-offs with irrigation, affecting food production, carbon emission and forest protection (Meng et al., 2020).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 103- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Similarly, hydropower production often has trade-offs with irrigation, affecting food production, carbon emission and forest protection (Meng et al., 2020).
66. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 110
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These numbers are projected to increase continuously, with estimates of up to 3 billion at 2°C and up to 4 billion at 4°C by 2050.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 110- Captured
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These numbers are projected to increase continuously, with estimates of up to 3 billion at 2°C and up to 4 billion at 4°C by 2050.
67. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 111
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Nearly half a billion people are living in unfamiliar wet conditions, mostly in mid- and high latitudes, and over 160 million in unfamiliar dry conditions, mostly in the tropics and subtropics (Figure FAQ4.2.1).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 111- Captured
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Nearly half a billion people are living in unfamiliar wet conditions, mostly in mid- and high latitudes, and over 160 million in unfamiliar dry conditions, mostly in the tropics and subtropics (Figure FAQ4.2.1).
68. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 111
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In contrast, far more people (about 600 million people) are seeing heavier precipitation than less heavy precipitation (80 million).
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 111- Captured
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In contrast, far more people (about 600 million people) are seeing heavier precipitation than less heavy precipitation (80 million).
69. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 112
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Floods and droughts will also affect more people in the course of this century as a result of population growth and increased urbanisation, especially if warming cannot be limited to 1.5°C.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 112- Captured
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Floods and droughts will also affect more people in the course of this century as a result of population growth and increased urbanisation, especially if warming cannot be limited to 1.5°C.
70. IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 4 Water · PDF page 114
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Worldwide, and especially in developing countries, agriculture (including crop cultivation and livestock and fisheries) is the largest water user, accounting for 50–90% of all water use.
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The exact quoted statement occurred in the named official PDF fetched on 2026-09-05, and the complete PDF matched the recorded SHA-256.
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PDF page 114- Captured
- 2026-09-05
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Worldwide, and especially in developing countries, agriculture (including crop cultivation and livestock and fisheries) is the largest water user, accounting for 50–90% of all water use.